NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 11/30


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Tuesday, November 30th

We have a short card tonight, but it is loaded with quality matchups.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors (-4, 219.5)

In the first game without Ja Morant the Grizzlies took care of business in a win over the Kings on Sunday. Their offense, led by Dillon Brooks, put up 1.325 points per possession and dropped 76 points in the first half of a blowout victory. Tonight, they will get to exact revenge against an equally poor defensive opponent in Toronto. The Raptors come into tonight 26th in defensive efficiency, allowing 112.4 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes. Opponents are shooting 68.0% at the rim against them this season while generating wide-open looks from 3-point range on 21.7% of their attempts, the third-highest rate in the league. To make matters worse, OG Anunoby is not close to returning from a hip injury, Khem Birch is out today with a knee injury and Gary Trent Jr. is questionable. I have my questions about Memphis with Ja Morant, so without him I consider them a very flawed team. In the minutes without him on the floor they are outscored by 4.7 points per 100 possessions and their offense puts up 107.6 points. However, in a situation like this, where the line is as high as Raptors -6 it is hard to pass on the underdog against such a flawed opponent and inflated line.

Play: Grizzlies (+ 5.5)

New York Knicks at Brooklyn Nets (-6, 217)

The Knicks are struggling to find consistency, so tonight Tom Thibodeau is making an adjustment. Kemba Walker has been removed from the rotation, and it seems his time as a Knickerbocker is done. The change blows up a starting lineup that has been outscored by 15.6 points per 100 possessions and has a defensive rating of 118.9. In Walker’s place will be Alec Burks who has been fantastic in his time in New York, and who changes the numbers dramatically when on the court. According to Cleaning The Glass, with Burks on the court at point guard in the Knicks’ starting lineup their net rating jumps + 12.6 and their offense averages 1.28 points per possession. The sample size is miniscule, but clearly a change needed to be made. Meanwhile, the Nets are coming off a loss to Phoenix over the weekend in which the offense managed just 1.059 points per possession for the game but came on strong in a 35-23 fourth with an average of 1.346 points per possession. The loss snapped a four-game win streak for Brooklyn, and they continue to struggle covering numbers, as they are 10-3 SU but 5-7-1 ATS this month due their extremely high power rating. On the other hand, New York’s rating seems to be near a season low. They were catching 7.5 in Atlanta over the weekend and Phoenix laid four in New York. The betting market has not made its opinion known yet, as 5.5 and 6.5 are up on the screen this morning. There is some slight line value in Brooklyn by my numbers, but the rating has clearly been high and this is not a buy-low spot like it was against Boston last week.

Los Angeles Lakers (-3.5, 227) at Sacramento Kings

The betting market just refuses to budge on this version of the Lakers, and those who are consistently betting against them are up big. With the failed cover against Detroit on Sunday night Los Angeles fell to league-worst 7-15 ATS (31.8%), but here they are again laying points on the road. Homecourt has been strong this season, factoring in at about three points through Monday, so this line would tell you the Lakers are 6.5 points better on a neutral. The problem with that is when these two met in Los Angeles four days ago the Lakers closed -8 which would say they were five points better on a neutral. That does not make much sense. Maurice Harkless is questionable to play and Harrison Barnes is doubtful for Sacramento, but Harkless played eight minute in the Kings’ win last week and Barnes was not available so it’s not a dramatically different scenario if neither play tonight. This line is up to -4.5 right now and that is with LeBron James listed as questionable to play, as he is almost every night. It would not surprise me to see this close higher, and should it continue to climb there is no way I can help myself. I want to avoid betting on bad teams, but the Kings might pull me in if the market continue to bash its head into the wall with the Lakers.

Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns (-2, 221)

Is this winning streak for Phoenix ever going to end? The team is 16-0 SU/10-6 ATS in its last 16 games with a + 11.3 net rating, and they are coming off a strong road win in Brooklyn on Saturday. They look identical to the team that won the Western Conference last season, but tonight will be their biggest test by far. The Suns’ net rating over the course of this win streak is surpassed by just one team: Golden State. The Warriors are 14-1 SU and ATS over their last 15 games with a + 16.4 net rating! This defense continues to impress, limiting opponents to 98.4 points per 100 possessions during this run and I believe it, along with their offense, gives them an edge tonight. Golden State is more than happy to allow Phoenix to work from mid-range. The Warriors rank first in frequency of attempts allowed at the rim and ninth in opponent rim shooting (62.4%). They allow opponents to shoot just 33.3% from the perimeter. However, they rank 26th in frequency of mid-range attempts allowed and 16th in opponent mid-range shooting (41.3%). Running opponents off the line and forcing them into inefficient mid-range jumpers falls right in line with what they want to do, and Phoenix will be more than happy to oblige. On the other end, the Warriors lead the league in rim shooting (70.3%) and they face a defense that has allowed opponents to shoot 63.5% inside four feet. Golden State also likes to get out in transition, starting 17.1% of their possessions with a transition play. That could be a problem for Phoenix which ranks 28th in fastbreak defensive efficiency (129.6). Damion Lee and Andre Iguodala are out for this game, but that is not enough to get me off the side of the underdog tonight.

Play: Warriors (+ 2.5)

Detroit Pistons at *Portland Trail Blazers (-9.5, 216)

Three straight losses and failed covers for Portland coming into tonight, but all three were on the road. At home, they are 9-1 SU/8-2 ATS with a + 11.7 net rating. Is it as simple as wagering on this team whenever it is on its home court? It might not be that simple against a Pistons team that is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games and getting better as the season progresses. Keep an eye on the injury report here. Damian Lillard was limping around a few times last night, and could be a surprise addition to the injury report along with Norm Powell who missed the games Utah last night. The hook has disappeared on this line and that is not surprising given what we have seen from the Pistons lately. They are a team you should give a bump to on your power ratings.

Best Bets Summary

Grizzlies (+ 5.5)

Warriors (+ 2.5)

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