NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 11/23


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Tuesday, November 23rd

Only four games on the card tonight, but still plenty of action for bettors.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Miami Heat (-8.5, 206.5) at Detroit Pistons

Last time out Miami blew a 10-point lead with less than five minutes to go against Washington, but this team is still in quality form. Six of their previous seven opponents have been held to fewer than 1.09 points per possession and they continue to be one of the best teams in the league at forcing turnovers, grabbing a possession 15.7% of the time. It seems like it is a match made in heaven for this defense as they face an offense that is averaging just 100.7 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes, is turning it over on 15.2% of its possessions and will be without its starting point guard in Killian Hayes. Isaiah Stewart is also sidelined for his antics in the contest with Los Angeles over the weekend, making this an extremely short-handed Pistons team. Detroit has been showing some fight as of late with a 5-5 ATS record in November, but that is with all hands on deck. Those absences are why the market is up to -10 almost everywhere, but the total is intriguing. In the lineups with Cory Joseph and Cade Cunningham on the floor together, the assumed pairing with Hayes out, Detroit is giving up just 102.7 points per 100 possessions and has not been outscored.  It’s somewhat surprising to see this total get bumped up on the overnight considering how slow they both play, and it is not a move I agree with.

Play: UNDER 208

Los Angeles Lakers at New York Knicks (-3, 214.5)

LeBron James will not play tonight as he serves a one-game suspension for his role in the brouhaha with Isaiah Stewart and the Pistons on Sunday. Anthony Davis is on the injury report but is considered probable to play. In the games without James this season Los Angeles is 4-6 SU/5-5 ATS and during his eight-game absence due to injury they were outscored by 6.2 points every 100 possessions. The offense is what suffers most without James, going from an average of 113.4 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor to 101.9 when he is off. If Los Angeles is going to cover this number, it will have to do it through its transition offense. The Lakers begin 16.6% of their possessions with a transition play when James is not on the floor, and off live rebounds that jumps to 32.2%. They average 1.231 points per play in all transition situations and 1.138 per play off live rebounds. New York has had some trouble with transition on defense, ranking 16th in defensive efficiency in transition by allowing 1.187 points per play overall and 1.162 off live rebounds. The market has yet to really adjust its perception of the Knicks which is why this team is 1-5 ATS in its last six games, but this number seems fair given the opponent tonight. 

Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers (-5.5, 212.5)

Nikola Jokic is listed as questionable with a wrist injury that has kept him sidelined the last two contests. In those losses the Nuggets failed to cover, extending their losing streak to 0-4 SU and ATS overall. Without Jokic they posted a -19.0 net rating while managing just 1.041 points per possession on offense. His presence is necessary if bettors are going to consider backing Denver here. Without Jokic on the floor this season the Nuggets have a -166. Net rating and their offensive rating in those possessions ranks in the 15th percentile of registered lineups by Cleaning The Glass. This team is awful without him and they are still missing Michael Porter Jr. and Bones Hyland. To make matters worse, they are in Portland where the Trail Blazers are a completely different team. Portland is 8-1 SU/7-2 ATS at home this season with a + 10.9 net rating which is the fourth-best net rating at home in the league. Damian Lillard is also start to emerge from a shooting slump that plagued him to start the season. After shooting 21.7% on 9.2 3-point attempts per game through the first nine contests, Lillard has shot 38.2% on 9.7 attempts per game in his last seven and it is no coincidence Portland is 5-2 SU and ATS in those games. Should Jokic not play tonight it will be a play on the home team.

Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Clippers (-5, 207.5)

According to a report from the Dallas Morning News, Luka Doncic went through practice on Monday before appearing to aggravate his knee injury. Doncic is officially questionable on the injury report, but if that is true one would expect him to be sidelined once more. Los Angeles snapped an 0-2 SU and ATS slide in taking the first of this two-game set on Sunday and tonight they get Marcus Morris back in the lineup for the first time since Oct. 23 against Memphis. Morris’ return comes at the perfect time with Nicolas Batum sidelined with COVID, and the Clippers scrounging for offense anyway they can get it. Los Angeles has limited their last five opponents to just 101.6 points per 100 possessions, but have scored 98.8 points themselves and as a result are 2-3 SU and ATS in those contests. Morris provides them with another floor-spacer and small-ball center, but his minutes load is unknown after such a long layoff. Dallas is still average on defense without Doncic on the floor, it is their offense that suffers. In the three games without him they are averaging 102.4 points per 100 possessions which is not ideal against a defensive team like the Clippers. This line is the exact number Los Angeles laid on Sunday, and I would expect it close right about here considering what we know about Doncic. Should he be announced expect this close around -2.5 at most shops. 

Best Bets Summary

Heat/Pistons UNDER (208)

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