NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 11/2


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report Recap for Monday, November 1st

For the first time in over a week the day went to the Overs on Monday with a 5-4 record. Mark this date down if you have been keeping track of this trend at home. Unders now have a 63-39 (61.8%) edge on the season, but the average total this past week was 219.1 which is four whole points lower than the average total in the first week of the season (223.1). With such a massive adjustment by oddsmakers do not be surprised to see the Overs start to take this record back to even. 

In other news, the Portland Trail Blazers and Boston Celtics are bad. Portland suffered an inexcusable loss yesterday to a Philadelphia 76ers team that did not have Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris or Ben Simmons. The Blazers gave up 1.228 points per possession and 1.107 points per play in the halfcourt. The loss is inexcusable, and Portland is now 0-2 SU and ATS on this east coast road trip and 0-3 SU and ATS on the road overall with a -17.0 net rating. Meanwhile, Boston blew a 19-point lead in the second-half, was outscored 39-11 in the fourth quarter, in which the team did not grab a single defensive rebound, and lost 128-114 to Chicago. The Celtics are 0-3 SU and ATS over the last three games with a 2-5 SU and ATS record on the season.

Market Report for Tuesday, November 2nd

It is the usual short slate on Tuesday, so let’s get the the process started.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5, 216.5) at Detroit Pistons

Injuries and illness continue to ravage Milwaukee’s roster. Donte DiVincenzo, Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez are already out with injury and Khris Middleton finds himself in the COVID protocols. The Bucks have suffered due to the short-handed nature of their roster, as they enter Tuesday on an 0-3 SU and ATS slide. Over the course of this slide their offense has been abysmal, averaging just 98.7 points per 100 possessions, and when Giannis leaves the floor it drops to 81.3 and Milwaukee has a -22.0 net rating. Those are not the figures of a team that should be laying points on the road, but it is Pistons. Detroit has had its moments though, especially against similar teams. They dropped Orlando 110-103 over the weekend and averaged 1.111 points per possession in the victory. Saddiq Bey will play despite being on the injury report with an ankle injury. The market moved to Bucks -5 but made its way back to the open of -4.5 at most shops. It is not surprising to see this total plummet to 210.5 this morning, as these are two teams that will struggle for offense.

Miami Heat (-1.5, 213.5) at Dallas Mavericks

Miami is fantastic form right now and they bring a 4-0 SU and ATS winning streak into tonight’s meeting with the Mavericks. The Heat have been tremendous on defense, limiting their last four opponents to 96.0 points per 100 possessions. Bam Adebayo missed the last game with a knee injury and is questionable to go again today, but in the possessions without him on the floor the Heat are + 19.1 with a 106.7 defensive rating, according to Cleaning The Glass. Even if he does not play Miami  should be in a solid spot against a Mavericks team that is 101.1 points every 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes. Dallas has zero presence at the rim and relies exclusively on the perimeter shot. They take 43.2% of their attempts from deep, but have shot only 31.6% so far this season. That plays into the hands of a Heat defense forces teams away from the basket and toward the perimeter where they have allowed just 30.6% to opposing shooters. Kristaps Porzingis is questionable for a fourth straight game and has not played since Oct. 26 against Houston. Even without Adebayo this Heat team matched up extremely well with Dallas and are worth backing as short road favorites here.

Play: Heat -2

Sacramento Kings at Utah Jazz (-10, 220)

Mike Conley returned after missing a road game in Chicago and the Jazz went right back to their winning ways with a 107-95 win Milwaukee over the Bucks. Today, the face Sacramento for a second time this season after winning and covering in Sacramento as a 6.5-point favorite. Utah just matches up well with Sacramento on the floor. The Kings want to get inside the arc and operate from that short mid-range area of the floor where they take 24.6% of their attempts and shoot 42.8%. The Jazz allowed them to do so in the first meeting, as the Kings shot 11-of-24 from that area of the floor. However, Sacramento combined to go just 28-of-75 (37.3%) from all other areas of the floor and averaged only 0.98 points per possession. It is another win for the stat nerds who rail against building an offense around the mid-range and Utah should have similar success defensively tonight. On the other end this is a matchup of an offense that averages 113.1 points per 100 possessions against a defense that allows 110.6. Utah takes 36.4% of its attempts at the rim and that is the exact frequency Sacramento allows within four feet. Across the board the statistical matchup is in favor of the home team, so do not expect a case to be made for the ‘dog in this article. 

New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns (-11.5, 216.5)

After Cleveland got inside a big number on Saturday I was hoping the oddsmakers would adjust the power rating on Phoenix which is 1-4 ATS on the season and 0-3 ATS in its last three games, but that is not the case. Instead, we get a higher number against a Pelicans team that has been undervalued by the betting market as this team is 4-1 ATS in its last five games. Phoenix’s defense finally showed itself against the Cavaliers by limiting the visitors to 0.902 points per possession, but that is easy to do against the 22nd-ranked offense in the NBA. New Orleans comes in with the 25th-ranked offense in non-garbage time (102.5), but their 122.2 efficiency mark on offense in transition could be a problem for Phoenix which allows 150.7 points per 100 plays in transition, the worst mark in the league. If bettors are going to be involved here make sure to have clear information on the injury report. Devonte’ Graham and Brandon Ingram are both questionable to play with various injuries, as is Deandre Ayton. 

Houston Rockets at Los Angeles Lakers (-10, 217)

When Houston got inside the number on Sunday night it dropped the Lakers’ record to 2-5 ATS on the season. Los Angeles is just not worth betting on at this point, but it is not because it is a bad team. It is because it’s a team figuring itself out. On Sunday the Lakers started Anthony Davis at center, their fourth different starting lineup in seven games. Accoring to Cleaning The Glass, only one lineup has played more than 52 possessions together this season. Frank Vogel is experimenting right now, and that could ultimately lead to some inconsistent results. Houston is a bad team averaging just 98.4 points per 100 possessions on offense this season, but Los Angeles is being priced as a team that has everything figured out and is trying to win these games and that just does not seem to be the case right now. 

Best Bets Summary

Heat -2

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