NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 11/16


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report Recap for Monday, November 15th

With 1.4 seconds left on the clock Jae Crowder was fouled by Anthony Davis, giving the Suns two free throw attempts with a two-point lead while 3.5 on the road. Crowder hit the first, but missed the second giving the Timberwolves the cover and ruining a perfect 11-0 ATS night for the favorites. Phoenix still won the game though, meaning the Suns are now 9-0 SU/7-2 ATS in their last nine games.

In other news, the Mavericks lost Luka Doncic to an ankle injury with less than a minute left in their win over Denver. He did not speak to the media after the game, so keep his health in mind as we move forward. Dallas has a two-game road series with Phoenix starting on Wednesday.

Market Report for Tuesday, November 16th

It is the usual short slate on Tuesday, but we get a doozy today in Brooklyn between the Warriors and Nets!

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Golden State Warriors at Brooklyn Nets (-3.5, 220.5)

Golden State was asleep at the wheel in its loss to Charlotte on Sunday, most likely overlooking the Hornets in anticipation of this contest. The result snapped a 7-0 SU/6-0-1 ATS runs for the Warriors, but they have an opportunity to get back on the horse against a short-handed Nets team. Joe Harris and Paul Millsap will miss the game tonight, and while he is not on the injury report, Kevin Durant is dealing with a sore shooting shoulder. This matchup will be a great test of Golden State’s defense, which comes into tonight allowing a league-best 100.4 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes. Overall, Brooklyn is seventh in offensive efficiency according to Cleaning The Glass (110.8), but the real matchup tonight comes in the halfcourt. The Nets lead the league in halfcourt offensive efficiency with an average of 101.2 points per 100 plays, but the Warriors allow the fewest points in the halfcourt at 85.9 per 100 plays. Harris’ absence is a blow for Brooklyn, as Brooklyn takes 40.2% of its attempts from the arc and shoots a league-best 40.3% on those shots. The situation tonight seems to be in favor of Golden State given the absence of Harris, and the Warriors have the personnel to throw at the Nets’ stars on defense. I’ve been looking to play on Brooklyn, and have taken a chances in this column, but the defense of the visitor tonight is very much worth repecting.

Play: Warriors (+ 3.5)

Philadelphia 76ers at Utah Jazz (-8.5, 217)

It is honestly surprising to see the betting market consistently run to the window to support Utah despite poor results to show for it. The Jazz are 1-4 SU and ATS over their last five games while laying an average of 7.6 points per game, but here we go again with the line getting driven up to -9.5 tonight against Philadelphia. The 76ers are still without Joel Embiid, Matisse Thybulle and Danny Green, but it’s clear this Utah team is flawed. Opponents have averaged 114.5 points per 100 possessions during this slump for the Jazz and its offense has been inconsistent. When Donovan Mitchell leaves the floor their offensive rating drops from 117.7 to 106.5 and they are outscored by 2.4 points every 100 possessions. It is understandable that bettor want no part of a short-handed Philadelphia team that is 0-4 SU and ATS in its last four games with a 117.0 defensive rating, but just understand that these numbers for Utah have been greatly inflated. Those absences are baked into the opening number and there is little value jumping in and laying such a price. 

San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Clippers (-6.5, 218.5)

Los Angeles had its 7-0 SU/5-2 ATS run snapped on Sunday in a loss to Chicago, but they have a fantastic opportunity tonight to grab another win over San Antonio. The Spurs have dropped three of four games and their offense is 21st in efficiency at 106.7 points per 100 possessions. The Clippers’ own offense does not rate much better at 108.4 per 100 possessions, but their defense has advantages across the board tonight. Los Angeles is allowing just 87.5 points per 100 plays in halfcourt situations, an area in which the Spurs are putting up just 91.5 per 100 plays. San Antonio is fifth in frequency of possessions beginning with a transition play, but they are 26th in offensive efficiency in transition and Los Angeles is fifth in transition defensive efficiency at 1.117 points per play allowed. Having said all of that, the Clippers are dangerously near, if not already at, their peak from a power rating perspective. Their offense is still inconsistent and that showed in their loss to the Bulls when they put up just 0.928 points per possession. I am higher on Los Angeles than most, but they are strictly an in-game wagering type of team. Bettors should look for slow starts and cheap numbers in-game here.

Best Bets Summary

Warriors (+ 3.5)

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