NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 11/15

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 

November 15, 2022 08:40 AM

Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page.

Market Report for Tuesday, November 15th

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Record: 15-20 | Units: -5.31 | ROI: -16.08%

New York Knicks at Utah Jazz (-4.5, 230)

New York is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games, and comes into this contest after losing at home to Oklahoma City and allowing 145 points in the process. Once again, the Knicks’ perimeter defense is failing them. Opponents are generating 20.8 wide open 3-point attempts per game and shooting 39.8% on those shots. Their inability to keep opponents off the offensive glass - New York is 25th in defensive rebounding rate at 69.3% - has led to them giving up 15.7 second chance points per game. These are all factors in this losing slide, and they also happen to be factors that play into the strengths of Utah. The Jazz take 37.8% of their attempts from deep and they shoot 40.1% on those attempts. They also rank third in non-garbage time offensive rebounding rate (31.2%) while averaging a respectable 22.6 points per 100 missed shot attempts. Utah has slipped down to 21st in non-garbage time defensive efficiency, and it has allowed opponents to take 36.1% of their attempts at the rim which is something the Knicks like to do. Having said that, this matchup works enough in Utah's favor that I will play the favorite tonight.

Play: Jazz (-4.5)

Best Bet Recap

Jazz (-4.5)

The Rest

Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans (-1, 232.5)

Both Memphis and New Orleans come into this meeting playing some inconsistent basketball. The Grizzlies are 5-4 SU/3-5-1 ATS in their last nine games while the Pelicans have a 3-4 SU/2-5 ATS record in the seven contests prior to this one. The betting market pushed the overnight line to New Orleans -3 but there are concerns about Zion Williamson’s availability, as he is listed as questionable to play. Meanwhile, Jaren Jackson Jr. is set to make his season debut for Memphis. Jackson is not going to alter the line at this point, but Williamson’s presence will greatly alter what this number closes at, and would make this game untouchable until concrete information on his status is known. 

*Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks (-6.5, 211.5)

Ty Lue sat his starters in the fourth quarter of their win over Houston last night so they could get some rest heading into a back-to-back in Dallas, but it will still be beneficial to see this injury report before acting. This number would tell me that the Clippers will be without Paul George or any number of starters, but that was not the message from Lue last night. Should the Clippers play everyone - other than Kawhi Leonard, who did make the trip - this number will surely drop. Los Angeles is the second best defensive team in the league at 108.1 points allowed per 100 possessions in non-garbage time and they have multiple defenders with the size capable of matching up with Luka Doncic. The Mavericks have also been increasingly reliant on Doncic to provide any sort of offense for them. Without him on the floor their efficiency drops from 117.5 to 104.8 per 100 possessions. The market is up to -7 on this game, but should the injury report be clean for Los Angeles this is going to be a play on the underdog at 6.5 or better. This high number is also representative of the market’s bloated rating on Dallas. The Mavericks have not covered a game since their win over Brooklyn on Oct. 27, making them 0-7-1 ATS in those nine games. The team is 5-3 SU over that stretch, but with a +0.9 net rating and offense averaging only 111.4 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. Dallas has closed as the favorite in each of those eight games as well, laying an average of 6.8 points per contest. 

*San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers (-7.5, 224.5)

San Antonio had its 3-0 ATS run snapped by Golden State last night, and now it has to take its shoddy defense up to Portland. Since the beginning of November the Spurs have allowed 118.6 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, and the team has a league-worst -13.9 net rating as a result. Portland’s offense has been its biggest inconsistency to this point of the season - the team is averaging only 112.2 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time - perhaps their floor is raised by the defensive play of San Antonio. However, the injury report for the Trail Blazers has Jusuf Nurkic and Justise Winslow on it, two key pieces for their 10th ranked defense. Should neither of them be able to play, this number will surely drop from the market high of -8.5 that is out there as of this morning.

Brooklyn Nets at Sacramento Kings (-1, 224.5)

This number reached as high as Sacramento -3 this morning, but it has since made its way back to the consensus number of -2 on the screen. Brooklyn is playing its third road game in four nights after splitting two games in Los Angeles over the weekend, but the Nets have shown some improvement on defense since Jacque Vaughn took over. Brooklyn leads the league in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (103.0) since Steve Nash’s firing, and while the shot quality data would suggest they are not this good, it still paints a positive defensive picture for Brooklyn. As a result, the team is 4-3 SU/5-2 ATS in the seven games since Vaughn took over the role. Ben Simmons is questionable tonight for Brooklyn, but should he play it's hard to deny the tangible changes Vaughn has brought on for the Nets.

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