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NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 1/11

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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Monday, January 10th

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Washington Wizards (-9.5, 216.5)

The betting market has a respect for Washington that I cannot quite figure out. Yes, the team did go on a 6-1 ATS run from Dec. 18 to Jan. 1 but it closed as an underdog in five of those contests. The Wizard also just barely got by in those contests, outscoring the opposition by 0.2 points every 100 possessions. Over the last four games the team is 2-2 SU/1-3 ATS and has been outscored by 0.9 points every 100 possessions. Against Houston and Orlando, the Wizards closed -7 and -7.5 and failed to cover both, losing the game to the Rockets outright. Here today, they open as 9.5-point favorites at home over a Thunder team that it, at worst, power rated the same as the Rockets. Washington is a below average defensive team that allows 111.1 points per 100 possessions and gives up 68.7% at the rim. Oklahoma City’s offensive philosophy begins with dribble penetration and shots within four feet. They lead the league in drives (63.9) and are 14th in frequency of attempts at the rim (32.4%). It stands to reason that the Wizards would have trouble limiting attempts inside, and when these two met in November the Thunder took 32 shots at the rim and drew five shooting fouls. On the flip side, Oklahoma City prioritizes rim defense and it shows, as the team is sixth in rim attempts allowed and seventh in opponent rim shooting (63.0%). This philosophy has led to some poor perimeter defense, but Washington is 28th in 3-point shooting (32.9%). Not only is this matchup that could work in the the Thunder’s favor, but it’s a number that is inflated by my own ratings, so give me the underdog here.

Play: Thunder (+ 9.5)

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