NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 10/25

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

All game lines via the VSiN NBA Odds page.

Daily Recap

Home teams had a strong night on Monday with a 6-2 SU and ATS night. They are still down for the season, but this will even out as the sample size grows. 

The result of the night worth mentioning is Chicago's 120-102 win over Boston. The Celtics clearly miss Robert Williams and have allowed 117.8 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes. That is the 24th ranked defensive rating in the league right now! This team might have a problem, but let's see a few more games before we freak out.

Also, the Portland Trail Blazers are 4-0 SU and ATS after an upset of Denver last night. Anfernee Simons showed out in a big way.



Market Report for Tuesday, October 25th

* Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bet

Record: 5-3 | Units: + 1.55 | ROI: + 19.38%

Golden State Warriors at Phoenix Suns (-2.5, 224.5)

Last time we saw the Warriors they were nearly blowing a 23-point lead at home to the Kings, but that was part of an incredible offensive performance in which Golden State scored 50 points in the second quarter and Steph Curry scored 33 points on 11-of-22 shooting. However, it was also a disjointed defensive effort that night, and the Warriors allowed 1.127 points per possession 0.979 points per play in the halfcourt. One subpar defensive game would not be anything to write home about, but it followed an extremely poor showing against Denver two nights prior in which Golden State lost 128-123 while allowing an offensive rating of 120.8 to the Nuggets. If the Warriors’ defense fails to show up once more it will be something to take note of tonight.

Meanwhile, the Suns have had some wild results early in the season. A dramatic comeback over the Mavericks, an overtime loss to the Trail Blazers and an absolute beatdown of the Clippers. Phoenix’s defense has been the constant in all three contests, and they enter this game with a defensive rating of 105.8 on the season. However, their offense is averaging just 110.2 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time and their bench has been somewhat poor, and that is no more apparent than when Devin Booker leaves the floor, as they have an 80.7 offensive rating. That is likely going to be a problem against the Warriors tonight.

All this leads me to support Golden State tonight. Their bench is better, their offense is still elite and Phoenix has been wildly inconsistent on offense in an admittedly small sample size. If we’re rolling with 1.5 points for homecourt this number now down to -1.5 says these two teams are equal, something I do not agree with.

Play: Warrior ML (+ 105)

Best Game

Dallas Mavericks (-5.5, 220) at New Orleans Pelicans

Brandon Ingram will not play, and both Zion Williamson and Herb Jones are questionable with injury, but even so this number seems extreme. If Williamson cannot play then that would likely leave New Orleans with a primary lineup of CJ McCollum and Jonas Valanciunas with any mix of Jose Alvarado, Devonte’ Graham, Trey Murphy III, Larry Nance Jr. or Jaxson Hayes which is not terrible. In fact, when McCollum, Hayes and Valanciunas shared the floor last season without Ingram the Pelicans were + 5.7 per 100 possessions, grabbed 30.5% of their missed shots and posted a 118.8 offensive rating. Putting those three on the floor does not mean they will be able to magically replicate those number from last season, but this team is far from cooked if Williamson is available. Also, should Williamson play but both Ingram and Jones not, this team does is not favored over Dallas? I would say they are, but that would mean a move from + 5.5 to -1 at the very least which would signify Williamson being worth 6.5 points which is extreme.

The point is this: Dallas -5.5 even with the injuries is an extreme number, but at this point of the day it is unplayable. Should bettors grab 5.5 with the Pelicans and Williamson and Jones are officially ruled out this number closes Mavericks -6.5 or higher. This is a quintessential NBA regular season game where information will be key, but I will monitor it throughout the day and even if I’m behind the line move after Williamson is available, I will likely be involved if the adjustment is not enough by my measure.  

The Others

Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards (-5, 223)

It’s been a disappointing start for the Pistons’ defense through three games. Detroit has allowed 118.7 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes, and 22.2% of opponent 3-point attempts have been considered wide-open with a shooting percentage of 38.1% allowed on those attempts. Only 30.7% of Washington’s shot attempts have come from deep, but they are shooting 39.3% on those shots which is a massive improvement from last season. Only move here has been on the total which is down to as low as 220.5 at a few shops. Detroit has played at somewhat quick pace this season (102.67 possessions per game), but Washington has been much slower (98.09). 

Los Angeles Clippers (-9.5, 219.5) at Oklahoma City Thunder

Los Angeles’ injury report continues to be an adventure every night, and this one is no different. Paul George will not play due to illness and Marcus Morris is out for personal reasons. With Kawhi Leonard still coming off the bench this is not a spread I would be willing to lay preflop. Oklahoma City is beat up as well with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey both listed as out with various injuries, so it explains why the Thunder are catching such a large number tonight. An in-game note for you: Leonard has checked in halfway through the second quarter in each of his first two games, and he closes out games for his third stretch of play. It might be a good opportunity for bettors to jump on a cheap in-game price on Los Angeles if they are close or down in the second right before Leonard hits the floor.

Best Bet Recap

Warriors ML (+ 105)

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