NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday 10/19


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Tuesday, Oct. 19th

The regular season has finally arrived. Operators have had these numbers up for a couple of weeks and the betting market has been consistently shaping these numbers in the days leading up to tip-off. We only have two games tonight, but plenty to discuss.

Let’s dive in:

*Lines listed are opening numbers

Brooklyn Nets (-1, 240.5) at Milwaukee Bucks

This line has taken quite the journey in the time it has been up on the board. Brooklyn originally opened -1 before heading -1.5 in the days after open. Once news of Kyrie Irving’s temporary dismissal from Brooklyn hit the market slowly made its way toward Milwaukee. However, early on Monday morning one group hit the Nets at +1 flipping the market on its head and pulling it back to Nets -1.5 at almost every shop. The market has been stubborn in its support of the defending champions though, as the Bucks are favored once again with almost every shop hanging Milwaukee -1 as of Monday night. 

Playing against the defending champion on ring night is a popular handicapping angle, and in conversations with bookmakers on Monday, that is the prevailing theory behind the market shift early Monday. Over the last 25 seasons, teams receiving their championship rings are 17-8 SU/10-15 ATS but that has evened out over the last nine seasons at 7-2 SU/5-4 ATS. Donte DiVincenzo and Bobby Portis have already been ruled out due to injury, which somewhat explain the three-point dip in the total from 240.5 to 237.5 at most shops. At +1.5 there was some value in Milwaukee, and with the way this line has been toggling back-and-forth there is chance bettors will see it once again.

Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers (-4.5, 230.5)

Los Angeles walks into the season opener against Golden State already short-handed. Trevor Ariza, Wayne Ellington and Talen Horton-Tucker have all been ruled out and Kendrick Nunn is questionable to play with an ankle sprain. The market initially went to Lakers -5 but the injury news has cut this down to as low as -3 at some shops. The Warriors do not have a perfect bill of health with Jonathan Kuminga and James Wiseman set to miss this contest on Tuesday night.

It is shocking to see the market turn on Los Angeles in a standalone spot like this, but a poor preseason in which they went 0-6 SU and ATS with -13.2 net rating has altered the perception of this team. I have no dog in this fight yet, but should the market get under -3 consider me a Laker fan tonight. As a result of the injuries the total has dropped 2.5 points to 228 at most shops, most likely due to injuries and the Lakers’ offensive woes in the preseason (95.8 points per 100 possessions).

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