NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 6/2

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 

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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Thursday, June 2

*Lines are opening numbers

Boston Celtics @ Golden State Warriors (-3.5, 210.5)

Game 1: Series tied 0-0

After an arduous postseason schedule that did include much rest both teams should come in fresh and ready to roll tonight. Golden State has not played since last Thursday when it eliminated Dallas, and Boston has had three days to recuperate from a gritty Eastern Conference Finals win over Miami. There are plenty who still believe this to be a bad “spot” for the Celtics because they went to seven games with the Heat, but this is not the same scenario as Game 1 of their series with Miami. In that contest they had one day off after their Game 7 win over Milwaukee and still opened a double-digit lead before falling apart in the third quarter. I do not believe that to be the case here for Boston. Three days off is an eternity for NBA players, especially after a postseason schedule like this one. 

In those three days, this line has been up and we’ve almost no movement from the side. The Westgate SuperBook briefly went to -3 but that snapped back to 3.5 quickly. The real movement we’ve seen here is on the total which is up two points to 212.5 at almost every shop and I believe that to be the right move. Boston is well-suited to take on Golden State’s impressive offense which comes with an array of sets that the Celtics will have to deal with. As I noted in the NBA Finals preview, that includes dribble hand-offs, off-ball screens, cuts to the basket and more. In the long run the Celtics’ switch-heavy approach on defense should be able to handle this style, but the first game against an offense like this will likely be a challenge. On the other end Boston will mismatch hunt, going after Stephen Curry and Jordan Poole, looking to put their bigger wings like Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown on them. Both approaches should lead to some early offensive success, and thus a higher scoring game. Having missed out on the better opening number I will not be playing the total, but I do believe even at 212.5 there is a scant amount of value on this number if bettors still wanted to play it Over.

This series is going to be incredible. It’s the postseason’s best offense in Golden State (averaged 117.8 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes) against the best defense in Boston (allowed 106 points per 100 possessions). It’s the old guard against the potential young dynasty that has been knocking on the door of the Finals for the last five seasons. It’s also a meeting of two teams who have some extreme trends when it comes to home and away splits.

Golden State enters this series with the best home record and net rating in the postseason, posting a 9-0 SU/7-2 ATS record in San Francisco while outscoring their playoff opponents by 16.6 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes. Meanwhile, Boston is 7-2 SU/7-1-1 ATS on the road in these playoffs with a league-best + 7.9 net rating, and for the entire season the Celtics are 32-16-2 ATS (66.7%) away from home!

My selection for the series is Boston. I have a future on them from the regular season, I believe them to be the better team in this series and I believe they are well-suited to respond on the road here today against Golden State. As I was writing this the South Point moved to -4 so for the column I will use that as the number to play but I cannot stress enough to wait and see what the market does with this number. There could be a 4.5 to grab as the day goes along.

Best Bet Summary

Celtics (+ 4)

Season Record: 98-82-2

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