NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 6/16

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Thursday, June 16th

*Lines are opening numbers

Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics (-3, 211)

Game 6: Warriors lead 3-2

For the fourth time in this postseason the Boston Celtics are facing elimination and must win to keep their season alive. Boston answered the call in each of those affairs – they are 3-0 SU and ATS in the previous three situations – but this is a different beast they must slay tonight.

Golden State has been tremendous on the defensive end of the floor in winning the last two games. They have allowed only 98.5 points per 100 possessions while forcing turnovers on 17.5% of their defensive possessions. In the fourth quarter the gap is even wider in the last two contests, as the Warriors have a + 39.1 net rating and have limited the Celtics to 0.848 points per possession. Boston has done a lot to sabotage itself – more on that later – but Golden State’s defensive strategies have been tremendous as well.

Steve Kerr opted to abandon the Warriors’ usual switching style and instead went with a similar strategy that was used against Dallas in the Western Conference Finals. Golden State denied Boston’s desire to attack Stephen Curry on defense, instead hedging Curry on the attacking player before keeping the primary defender on the initial matchup and allowing Curry to scram back to his initial assignment. The result was long, inefficient possessions which ended in poor looks and shot quality for the Celtics.

Having said that, Boston can blame itself for many of its issues in this series as well. The Celtics have allowed 103 points off turnovers through five games of this series, the most by any team since 1992 and the third-most since the 1990 Finals. On Monday night they missed 10 free throw attempts along with their first 12 3-point attempts which has been a problem in this series, as Boston is shooting 31.7% on wide-open 3-point attempts (5-of-19 in Game 5).

Yet, they still came out swinging in the third quarter and took the lead with 6:28 left in the quarter due to a barrage of offense and defense which is why I still believe that this team can, at the very least, extend this series to a Game 7 back in San Francisco. Boston is still an elite defense which has held Golden State to 110.0 points per 100 possessions in this series. Going back home after consecutive losses in an elimination game is a favorable situation for the home team as well. The spread has not mattered to the winner in this postseason – the last 26 winners have covered the spread – so whatever side you believe in tonight approach it with that trend in mind.

Again, there will be no bet for me here tonight given my position on the series, but I will say I do believe we will be getting a Game 7 on Sunday night.

Best Bet Summary


Season Record: 100-84-2

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