NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 5/26

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 

USATSI_18346421

Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Thursday, May 26th

*Lines are opening numbers

Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors (-6.5, 215.5)

Game 5: Warriors lead 3-1

Through four games in the series the Golden State Warriors are 3-1 SU and ATS and they’ve outscored the Dallas Mavericks by 10.9 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes. Coming back home with a spot in the NBA Finals on the line it would stand to reason that is the Warriors are in a great “spot” tonight, and the market seems to support that theory as most of the bets and handle is laying the points with Golden State. However, I think we really must look at how this series has played out, because a deeper look would show that Dallas has played much better than the results would indicate.

In the first three games of this series the Mavericks were experiencing, for lack of a better term, bad luck. Before the win on Tuesday Dallas was averaging 26.7 wide-open 3-point attempts per game but shooting just 33.8% on those shots. The Mavericks have won the Shot Quality score in each game of this series, and they posted a Shot Quality efficiency mark of 1.22 points or more in three of the four games played. According to Cleaning The Glass, the Warriors’ location effective field goal percentage (53.5%) is much lower than their actual effective field goal percentage (59.5%). The NBA tracking data tells us that Golden State is shooting 61.1% on tightly contested attempts, while the next best team – Miami – is shooting just 50.0% on those attempts. The correction finally came around for Dallas on Tuesday and the results were lopsided, as the Mavericks shot 57.1% on 21 wide-open 3-point attempts in the win.

The bottom line here is that Dallas has played much better than the results have shown. When I said yesterday in the column that I diverted from my usual handicapping process I meant that I ignored the data in front of me because I had been burned by the results. I came into the series thinking that Dallas was the side to back on a game-to-game standpoint, believing them to be undervalued. After losses in the first two games, I was knocked off my stance in Game 4 and was handed another loss as a result. That will not happen tonight. Dallas is down in the series, but the numbers would indicate there is no reason to alter the power rating here and inflate the number on Golden State. However, this is up to 7.5 at multiple shops. Forgive the pun, but I am back on the horse tonight. 

Play: Mavericks (+ 7.5)

Best Bet Summary

Mavericks (+ 7.5)

Season Record: 98-81-1

back to news

PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

Close