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NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 5/12

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Thursday, May 12th

*Lines are opening numbers

Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers (-2.5, 208)

Game 6: Heat lead 3-2

If this series has taught us anything it is that Miami will be unable to hit a 3-point shot in this game and Philadelphia will force a Game 7 with a victory. In all seriousness, this series – like many of the series in the conference semifinals – has been about playing at home. The 76ers have been outscored by 23.7 points per 100 possession in South Beach while the Heat have a -17.0 net rating after two games in the City of Brotherly Love. Philadelphia is shooting 21.2% on wide-open 3-point attempts in Miami, but 40.9% at home. The same could be said of the Heat which shot 22.2% on those attempts on the road, but 47.5% in the three games at home. We could simply follow that trend tonight and assume that Miami will lose this game due to poor shooting, but the Heat did make some adjustments that could benefit them in this contest.

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