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NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 4/7


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Thursday, April 7th

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors (-2, 215.5)

It seems extremely likely that these two teams will be meeting in a first-round playoff series, but bettors should expect both to come out with full motivation to win tonight given how beneficial a strong end to the regular season would be for these two teams. For Toronto, there is still a fleeting chance at the fourth seed – 2.6% according to Basketball-Reference – and Philadelphia can get to as high as second to avoid a series with these Raptors. Therein lies the intrigue with this game, and an eventual series, between these two teams. Matisse Thybulle is ineligible to play tonight in Toronto due to the Canadian vaccine mandates, and that would be the case for a playoff series. Thybulle is a fantastic defender, and his absence will be a massive blow for a 76ers team struggling to find consistency on that end of the floor. Philadelphia is 13th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency in its last 18 games (113.7), and in the possessions that James Harden runs the show without Joel Embiid they have a -9.8 net rating due to a defense giving up 1.25 points per possession. Those numbers also include Thybulle, and when both Embiid and Thybulle are removed the net rating plummets farther to -18.1 and the defensive efficiency balloons to 1.295 per possession allowed. In the big picture that is troubling, and in a matchup like tonight it is troubling as well. As the Raptors have become healthier their play has improved. The team is 12-3 SU/11-4 ATS in its last 15 games with the third-best defensive rating over that span (108.5) and an offense averaging 117.0 points per 100 possessions. They will be able to exploit the minutes in which Embiid rests, and their love for transition offense will be a problem for a 76ers team that comes in 28th in both opponent points added per 100 possessions through transition (+ 3.5) and defensive efficiency in transition (131.5 points per 100 plays allowed). If OG Anunoby plays tonight it’s a bonus for Toronto, but I believe them to be a poor matchup for the 76ers and I will play this game as such. The betting market seems to disagree, as this number is now PK or Philadelphia -1 at most shops, but that same market has overvalued this team and it is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 as a result.

Play: Raptors (+ 1)

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