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NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 4/28


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Thursday, April 28th

*Lines are opening numbers

Philadelphia 76ers (-1.5, 209.5) at Toronto Raptors

Game 6: 76ers lead 3-2

The Raptors have started to play their game. Over the last three contests Toronto has held Philadelphia to 102.4 points per 100 possessions and eliminated their ability to score in transition. Through the first two games of the series the 76ers added 11.9 points per 100 possessions through transition offense and put up 1.923 points per play. Over the course of the last three games the 76ers have lost 0.4 points per 100 possessions playing in transition and have averaged just 1.0 point per play. Toronto is also defending extremely well and forcing turnovers. Over that same span the 76ers have turned it over on 19.9% of their possessions and that has led to fastbreak opportunities for the Raptors who have added 4.4 points per 100 possessions in transition offense off steals and are averaging 1.824 points per play. This was supposed to be the matchup that Toronto thrived in and they have done that over the course of the last three games.

If Philadelphia is going to end this tonight, they need both James Harden and Tyrese Maxey to show up. Harden has become passive once again, averaging 18.5 points on 32.1% shooting from the floor in the last two games while going just 3-of-7 in the restricted area. Maxey went from unstoppable force to 14.0 points per game on 38.6% shooting since Game 3. If either can reemerge then the 76ers could be cooking with gas, but the Raptors are too good for me to believe that will be the case. I bet on this team to win the series because the matchups were there for them to exploit and they have done so. I am already invested in this series so I will not be involved preflop today, but I do believe that Toronto wins and forces an elimination game in the City of Brotherly Love.

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