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NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 4/21

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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Thursday, April 21st

*Lines are opening numbers

Memphis Grizzlies (-2.5, 238) at Minnesota Timberwolves

Game 3: Series tied 1-1

Taylor Jenkins made his adjustment on Tuesday and it led to a blow out of Minnesota in Game 2 and now it is Chris Finch’s turn with the series back in Minnesota. The Grizzlies opened Game 2 with their traditional lineup of Steven Adams at center, but after he committed two quick fouls when getting blown by on defense Jenkins benched Adams for the rest of the game. The adjustment worked and Memphis’ small-ball lineups throttled Minnesota throughout the game, putting up 1.188 points per play in the halfcourt while getting dribble penetration which led to them going 19-of-26 at the rim. The Timberwolves’ perimeter defense must be better, but the troubling part about Tuesday was that it was eerily reminiscent of the way they ended the regular season. Over the course of the final nine games they allowed 121.6 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes, 103.5 points per 100 plays in halfcourt settings and 75.8% at the rim. Sound familiar? It will be fascinating to see how the Timberwolves adjust here, because defensively there is not much else they can do on the surface. The betting market has shown early support for Minnesota here and it makes sense given the situation of a team coming back home off a loss. It’s surprising that the total has come down with the side moving toward the underdog here. It is my belief that if Minnesota is going to win and cover this game it would be somewhat higher scoring given the challenges this defense is going to face. 

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