NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 3/10

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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Monday, March 7th

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers (-4.5, 229.5)

Kevin Durant has been on the floor for three games now, but the last two are the ones that matter. In road games against Boston and Charlotte the Nets averaged 124.3 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes and posted a 62.4% effective field goal percentage. Against the Celtics Durant scored 37 on 12-of-21 shooting and Irving dropped 50 on 15-of-19 shooting two nights later. It should come as no surprise that having two of the best scorers in the league makes an offense elite, and now they find themselves as underdogs in a massive spot in Philadelphia. The James Harden experiment has worked to this point. With him and Joel Embiid on the floor the 76ers are averaging 132.4 points per 100 possessions and have a + 29.4 net rating. There is no question Philadelphia is elite with its own duo, but this defense is about to face its biggest test. Matisse Thybulle is a likely candidate to defend Irving, but can Tobias Harris handle Durant? Tyrese Maxey and Harden are two targets for Irving and Durant to go after possession after possession as well. Danny Green is out for Philadelphia as well, which is one less defensive piece to throw at either Irving or Durant. Personally, I believe Brooklyn to be a team to bet on when Durant and Irving can play together and this is obviously one of those spots. I’ll grab the points with the road team tonight.

Play: Nets (+ 4.5)

Golden State Warriors (-2.5, 220.5) at *Denver Nuggets

Steve Kerr was unhappy with the league for scheduling their makeup game with Denver on Monday, so he sent all of his stars home after a loss to Los Angeles on Saturday. However, it is the Nuggets who are in an awful spot tonight playing their fourth game in five nights, this one coming on no rest. Nikola Jokic was brilliant yet again last night, dropping 38 points on 15-of-24 shooting with 18 rebounds and seven assists, and his presence has been a problem for Golden State. In three games against the Warriors Jokic has averaged 29.7 points, 17.0 rebounds and 8.7 assists and Denver is 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS against them as a result. Golden State is expected to have its offensive trio of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins on the floor tonight but that does not mean the Warriors deserve to be favorites on the road here. Golden State covered its last two, but is still 4-11 ATS in its last 15 games. This number seems to indicate that Jokic will not play tonight. If he does, the Nuggets are the side to play here. 

Best Bets Summary

Nets (+ 4.5)

Season Record: 70-58-1

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The Lombardi Line: Bookmakers love parleys, when playing them, you want a mix of favorites and underdogs.

Pro Football Blitz: When you back teams on the raod you want a good running team, when you back teams at home you want a good passing team. With teams on the road usually the underdog, you want a team that can control time of possession like the Tennessee Titans.

 

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Shaun King: Eagles -6.5 vs Jaguars

Brendan Gaughan: Brad Keselowski Top 3 +600

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

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