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NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 1/27


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Thursday, January 27th

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Los Angeles Lakers at Philadelphia 76ers (-2, 217.5)

It’s the fourth game of a six-game road trip for Los Angeles tonight, but the team is finally healthy and playing somewhat consistent basketball. The Lakers are 3-2 SU and ATS in the last five games with a 106.4 defensive rating, and Anthony Davis is back after returning on Tuesday in the win over the Nets. Finding something consistent on defense is key for Los Angeles. In those two losses they gave up a combined 117.3 points per possession, and recently poor defensive play has ruined a steady baseline of production from its offense. Speaking of, that offense has a relatively good matchup in front of it tonight in Philadelphia. The 76ers have had trouble with teams that force the issue in the restricted area, ranking 17th in both frequency of attempts allowed at the rim (33.2%) and shooting percentage allowed (65.2%). The Lakers are second in frequency of attempts at the rim and they rank 11th in shooting (65.9%), and much of that comes from their transition offense.  This is where the matchup really matters. Philadelphia ranks 27th in pace and loves to slow the game down to keep teams out transition. Los Angeles loves to run. They rank third in pace and have the third highest transition frequency off live rebounds where they average 120.9 points per 100 plays. A combination of consistent rim pressure and transition play is a poor mix for Philadelphia. On the other end, the question becomes who is guarding Joel Embiid? Frank Vogel started Davis at the five in his return to action on Tuesday, but Dwight Howard could be in the mix for a start to match Embiid who averages 10.8 post-ups per game. Embiid will likely get his, but with Seth Curry set to miss his fourth consecutive game the onus is on the rest of this offense to perform. 

Play: Lakers (+ 2.5)

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