NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 1/27


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Thursday, January 27th

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Los Angeles Lakers at Philadelphia 76ers (-2, 217.5)

It’s the fourth game of a six-game road trip for Los Angeles tonight, but the team is finally healthy and playing somewhat consistent basketball. The Lakers are 3-2 SU and ATS in the last five games with a 106.4 defensive rating, and Anthony Davis is back after returning on Tuesday in the win over the Nets. Finding something consistent on defense is key for Los Angeles. In those two losses they gave up a combined 117.3 points per possession, and recently poor defensive play has ruined a steady baseline of production from its offense. Speaking of, that offense has a relatively good matchup in front of it tonight in Philadelphia. The 76ers have had trouble with teams that force the issue in the restricted area, ranking 17th in both frequency of attempts allowed at the rim (33.2%) and shooting percentage allowed (65.2%). The Lakers are second in frequency of attempts at the rim and they rank 11th in shooting (65.9%), and much of that comes from their transition offense.  This is where the matchup really matters. Philadelphia ranks 27th in pace and loves to slow the game down to keep teams out transition. Los Angeles loves to run. They rank third in pace and have the third highest transition frequency off live rebounds where they average 120.9 points per 100 plays. A combination of consistent rim pressure and transition play is a poor mix for Philadelphia. On the other end, the question becomes who is guarding Joel Embiid? Frank Vogel started Davis at the five in his return to action on Tuesday, but Dwight Howard could be in the mix for a start to match Embiid who averages 10.8 post-ups per game. Embiid will likely get his, but with Seth Curry set to miss his fourth consecutive game the onus is on the rest of this offense to perform. 

Play: Lakers (+ 2.5)

Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors (-5.5, 228)

This will be the third meeting between these two franchises this season which have split up to this point, but Stephen Curry was unavailable 11 days ago in the 119-99 win for the Timberwolves in Minnesota. This time around Curry will be out on the floor, and one would expect a better offensive effort than the one put forth by the team in the last meeting. Golden State is coming off one of its best offensive performances of the month, breaking out for 130 points and 1.337 points per possession in a win over Dallas on Tuesday. It was just the third time this month that the Warriors put up more than 1.2 points per possession in a game! One would expect a similar performance tonight against the Timberwolves, but that is easier said than done. The key statistic tonight is going to be turnovers. While that might seem like an obvious statement, its even more vital in matchup between these two teams. Golden State enters this game 29th in turnover rate, coughing the ball up on a staggering 15.8% of their possessions. Minnesota’s defensive scheme prioritizes chaos and forces turnovers like no other team, literally. The Timberwolves rank first in defensive turnover rate (16.9%), third in deflections per game (16.4) and fifth in charges drawn (0.68). It has been a massive reason why this team is 10th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (109.4) and why the matchup well with Golden State’s offense which has a penchant for turnovers. Frankly, we have not seen enough consistency from the Warriors’ offense to merit the respect the market is giving them here by driving the number to -6.5 in some shops, but I would expect buyback on that number. Patrick Beverley is questionable tonight, and he is a massive part of this defensive scheme for Minnesota. If cannot go it’s a massive blow for the road team, so monitor those injury reports throughout the day.

Best Bets Summary

Lakers (+ 2.5)

Season Record: 55-44-1

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Matt Youmans: Heat (+8.5) at Nuggets. View more picks.


The Lombardi Line: Both the Nuggets and Heat shot poorly in Game 1 of the NBA Finals - and the total is down five points in Game 2 (219.5 to 214.5). Consider betting the OVER if you expect any positive regression. View more tips.