NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 12/2


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Thursday, December 2nd

We only have a couple games tonight, as the NFL takes its usual spot on the stage, but there is a fantastic headliner in New York to handicap nonetheless.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Chicago Bulls (-2, 214) at New York Knicks

For the third time this season these two teams will meet, and if tonight is anything like the other two contests we are in for a treat. The season series is tied thus far, but both games shared a similar theme: Massive fourth quarters for Chicago. In the first meeting the Bulls rallied in the waning minutes with a 12-0 run in the final 2:13 but fell when DeMar DeRozan did not get his shot off. Last week, Chicago won the game with a 37-29 fourth quarter and grabbed the cover as well. Both games were in the Windy City, but tonight the Knicks play host and are amid a solid 3-1 ATS stretch. Both teams have been somewhat inconsistent as of late, but the Bulls are starting to show their true colors on defense. Over the last eight games Chicago is 4-4 SU and ATS with a 112.0 defensive rating in non-garbage time minutes. A big issue for them has been the inability to guard without fouling, as opponents are making 23.6 free throws per 100 possessions over this span. Their halfcourt defense is allowing 96.4 points per 100 plays and it stems from a defense allowing opponents to take 36.6% of their attempts at the rim. Those opportunities have opened drive-and-kick plays for the opposition and as a result the Bulls have allowed shooters to hit 38.6% from deep over these eight games. New York has not been perfect, but their lineup change paid off against Brooklyn. The Knicks posted their best individual game offensive rating (119.6) since Nov. 7 against Cleveland, and they put up over a point per play in the halfcourt for just the second time in November. RJ Barrett is questionable to play with a non-COVID illness, and Coby White is in COVID protocol for Chicago. This comes down to the number for me. There is not much separating these two teams, but the market clearly respects the Bulls as they are laying points on the road. Homecourt this season has been worth three points, so is Chicago five points better on a neutral? That is not the case by my numbers, so I will take the bucket with the home team tonight.

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