NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 11/4

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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report Recap for Wednesday, November 3rd

It was a fantastic night in the NBA with a bunch of fun games that had some fantastic finishes. Favorites went just 6-5 ATS and Unders made a massive comeback with a 8-2-1 night despite an average total of 216.7 on the board!

Market Report for Thursday, November 4th

Tonight’s card is nowhere near as attractive, but there is still some unique opportunities for bettors so let’s get started.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

*Philadelphia 76ers (-6, 208.5) at Detroit Pistons

It is the second leg of a back-to-back for Philadelphia so make sure to keep your eye on the injury report for Joel Embiid who has been battling knee soreness this season. Embiid gave no indication in his post-game media availability that he would miss the game, but always something to keep in mind. Detroit is clearly up against it in matchups against premier teams in this league, something that is represented by their failed covers against Brooklyn and Milwaukee. In that game against the Bucks they closed as just a 4.5-point underdog and now they open + 6 at home against Philadelphia. The adjustment here might seem strong but its clear the market was overvaluing the injury situation for Milwaukee in that meeting on Tuesday. Detroit is sliding defensively, allowing 114.3 points per 100 possessions in their last five games and 234 to their previous two opponents. They have no real matchup for Joel Embiid on defense and they will likely struggle to score against the 76ers which are allowing just 105.9 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes. Philadelphia has the ability to roll here, but with a short-handed roster there are much better situations to wager on than an inflated road favorite with injury concerns.

Utah Jazz (-1, 220.5) at *Atlanta Hawks

There are injury concerns for Utah coming into this contest with Donovan Mitchell and Royce O’Neale popping up on the injury report as questionable. Mitchell rolled his ankle in the Jazz’s win over the Kings on Tuesday night, but returned to play so it might not be a serious concern. If Mitchell is confirmed to be active here, I believe Utah is the side to back. Atlanta is showing some real issues on defense this season, and Brooklyn exacerbated that issue with 1.158 points per possession last night. Over the last four games they have allowed 118.3 points per 100 possessions and they have clearly been overvalued by the market with a 1-4 ATS mark over the last five games. The Hawks are a team that I want to play against when it comes to quality competition and the Jazz are just that when fully healthy. The injury report is why bettors have seen this flip from Jazz -1 to Hawks -1 at most shops, but should Mitchell and O’Neale play Utah deserves to be favored in this meeting.  

*Boston Celtics at Miami Heat (-7.5, 215)

Boston finally got right against the lowly Orlando Magic last night, but this is a different beast entirely. Miami enters this contest on a 5-0 SU and ATS run over which they have outscored opponents by 18.1 points per 100 possessions. Their power rating has clearly been improved as they were laying 6.5 against Charlotte last Friday and today open lay a full point more against a higher rated team in Boston. Miami has been dominant on defense, allowing just 98.6 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes, but there have been some cracks in the armor. Memphis put up 1.093 points per possession in their loss to Miami and they shot 15-of-40 from deep. Dallas averaged 1.157 per possession on Tuesday and 0.977 per play in the halfcourt. The Heat’s defensive game plan has been to keep teams from the restricted area and allow them to take 3-point shots. They rank 2nd in opponent rim frequency (28.5%) and 30th in opponent 3-point frequency (44.9%), but 23rd in opponent rim shooting (66.7%) and 3rd in opponent 3-point shooting (31.1%). It is a brilliant game plan, but perimeter-oriented offenses could find some comfort level against this defense, much like Dallas did to a certain extent. Boston has attempted 38.1% of its attempts from deep, 10.1% from the corners and just 29.0% of their attempts at the rim. Their transition offense has been very good as well, averaging 122.4 points per 100 plays in the fastbreak according to Cleaning The Glass. The Celtics have yet to post an injury report, but there is no indication there any injuries to be concerned about here. Miami is clearly near its peak from a power rating perspective, and I will take my shot at taking advantage of that.

Play: Celtics (+ 7)

Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns (-10.5, 217.5)

The defensive issues that Phoenix has had to start the season have not been apparent over the last two games but playing the 19th and 27th ranked offenses will help with that. Luckily the Rockets come in ranked 28th with an average of 100.0 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. Having said that, the Suns are still clearly being overvalued by the betting market. They are 2-4 ATS this season and they needed a 36-18 fourth quarter to cover by a half-point against New Orleans on Tuesday. Houston has shown some competence on the defensive end of the floor, but they are only 19th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (108.1) with one of the worst rim defenses in the league (67.8%). Bettors can continue to fade this Phoenix team due to its overvalued nature, but it has at least shown an ability to take care of bad teams lately. Keep in mind that both Deandre Ayton and Cam Payne are questionable to play, so keep an eye on those injury reports today. The market has moved on either the side or total but I would expect this to drop to -10 given Houston’s competitiveness in their two-game series in Los Angeles.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers (-13, 217.5)

A 2-6 ATS record and two failed covers as a double-digit favorite in consecutive game matters not to the betting market. Los Angeles is up to -14 at multiple shops despite showing absolutely nothing to bettors that says this team can cover massive numbers like this. The Lakers are giving up 94.2 points per 100 plays in the halfcourt, and when these two played last week the Thunder averaged 1.175 points per possession. LeBron James is questionable to play tonight, as is Dwight Howard, but Wayne Ellington could making his season debut tonight. Oklahoma City has covered three of four as they have been very undervalued by the betting market and it seems to be the case again here. This is not a game that will make a best bet card for me, but you will not catch me laying points like this with Los Angeles anytime soon.

Best Bet Recap

Celtics (+ 7)

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