NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 1/13


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Thursday, January 13th

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Golden State Warriors @ Milwaukee Bucks (-2, 223)

The Golden State Warriors’ slump extends well beyond the current 2-3 SU/1-4 ATS slide the team is on right now. Since Nov. 30 the team is 12-8 SU/8-12 ATS with a + 3.2 net rating. In other words, average. Even more concerning is the current stretch of play for Steph Curry. Over the course of these 20 games Curry is averaging 25 points per game, but on 37.4% shooting from the floor and 34.3% from deep. As a result, the Warriors put up just 107.7 points in non-garbage time minutes in those contests. There has been no real indicator that Golden State is going to break out of this slump but facing a Milwaukee team mired in its own 1-4 SU and ATS slide could help. The Bucks’ effort on defense has been subpar during this slide, but it’s the offense which has failed to carry its weight. Milwaukee has averaged just 108.4 points per 100 possessions over the last five games despite facing three opponents who rank lower than 23rd in defensive efficiency. Getting right on offense is not something one does against the Warriors, which are still one of the best defensive teams in the league even without Draymond Green who will not play tonight. The early move this morning has been toward Golden State, as one shop moved to -1.5 but I would not expect this to get much lower. Milwaukee still has Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton on the floor, and those two without Jrue Holiday still have a + 11.9 net rating. This line should be closer to -2.5 according to my numbers, so I will lay a short number with the home team.

Play: Bucks (-1.5)

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