NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 11/11


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report Recap for Wednesday, November 10th

It was the underdogs’ day on Wednesday as they went 7-6 ATS with six outright wins. Among those victories was the Charlotte Hornets who extracted the chunk of flesh we bettors were owed from the Memphis Grizzlies by beating them 118-108 on the road. We also saw some losing streaks get extended last night when Portland fell to 0-6 SU and ATS on the road this season and Minnesota lost and failed to cover its sixth consecutive game. 

Market Report for Tuesday, November 11th

It is a short slate of just three games today and three of the six teams come in on the second leg of a back-to-back.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

*Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers (-2, 213.5)

The Raptors come into Thursday on an 0-3 S and ATS slide after getting blown out by the Celtics in Boston last night. Their offensive woes have sprung up yet again as they work Pascal Siakam back into the lineup, but tonight Siakam is unavailable which might be a blessing in disguise for a team that was starting to find its identity before his return. Toronto is also facing a Philadelphia with an injury report that is a mile long. Seth Curry and Tobias Harris are questionable to play, and Joel Embiid and Matisse Thybulle remain out. The rash of absences has greatly affected the 76ers who are 0-2 SU and ATS in the last two games with a 106.8 offensive rating. Toronto is up to + 3 at every shop, but that is the usual reaction from the betting market when teams are playing on consecutive nights. I will not have a dog in this fight, but the Raptors would be my preferred side should only Siakam be on the injury report once submitted. Also, it is worth noting this total has dropped to 210 at most shops which speaks to the potential offensive struggles of both teams.

*Indiana Pacers at Utah Jazz (-9, 219.5)

Indiana is in terrible form. Last night, against a Denver team without Nikola Jokic or Michael Porter Jr., the Pacers lost 101-98 while mustering a pathetic 1.065 points per possession. Despite talent across the board this team fails to deliver, and now they face the dreaded Denver/Utah back-to-back tonight. There really is nothing to find here that makes me want to jump on Indiana, but that does not necessarily mean backing the favorite is the way to go here. Utah got off their losing streak with a win and cover over Atlanta, but this team still trying to find consistency from its bench. The Jazz are 20th in bench points this season at 32.8 per game and when Donovan Mitchell is not on the court their offensive rating is just 106.8 per 100 possessions. That has led to some poor showings, like losing on the road in Chicago without Mike Conley or falling in both Miami and Orlando over the weekend. Utah is perfectly capable of covering this kind of a number on a good shooting night, but just be wary that their weakness is a big one that has already tripped them a few times this season.

*Miami Heat at Los Angeles Clippers (-2.5, 214.5)

This seems to be a terrible spot for Miami and the market has responded in kind. Los Angeles is up to -4 at most shops but bettors can still snag some stray 3.5 lines out there. The Clippers are 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS in their last five games with the second-best net rating in the league over that span (+ 10.9). Their defense is giving up just 102.6 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes, and today they will host a Heat team likely to be without Jimmy Butler as he sprained his ankle last night against the Lakers. Miami has been solid in the minutes with Butler on the bench, but this offense could have some issues with him unavailable. Tyler Herro is averaging 20.9 points off the bench for the Heat, but after that the next leading reserve is Markieff Morris at 7.7 points per game. Bettors saw how limited that offense could be last night when the Heat were held to just 1.064 points per possession. Los Angeles is a great defensive team that is primed to maintain its winning streak tonight, but the market has been all over it. This line is up and this total is down to 210.5 and both moves are too strong to recommend a play despite a great spot for the home team. Attack this one in-game to find some value.

Best Bet Summary


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