NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 10/28

October 28, 2021 07:26 AM

Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report Recap for Wednesday, October 27th

The underdogs were barking last night with a 6-4 SU / 7-3 ATS record with big upsets by the Cavaliers (+ 290), Kings (+ 290) and Thunder (+ 200). Unders had another big night going 7-3 and bringing the season record to 40-25 through 65 games. This might seem to be an early aberration but there is something to this. 

The new emphasis on not calling simple fouls has altered the way these games have been played. This season the average offensive rating is 107.4 through just over a week of action, much lower than the season average of 112.9 last season. The average free throw rate (Free throws made every 100 possessions) is down from 19.2 last season to just 17.0 this season. Oddsmakers will adjust to this trend, but keep this in mind in your handicap as you move forward.

Market Report for Thursday, October 28th

We have Thursday Night Football tonight, but we get six games this evening. Injuries are already wreaking havoc on some of these contests so make sure you check those injury reports!

*Indicates team is on second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines listed are opening numbers

Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers (-10, 217.5)

This game does not have much going for it and given the injury situation you can see why. Cade Cunningham remains sidelined with an ankle injury and now Jerami Grant is in danger of missing this contest with an elbow injury. On the other side, Joel Embiid is dealing with knee soreness that kept him from walking for two days, according to ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne. Against a winless Pistons team that is no threat in the Eastern Conference it would not be surprising to see Embiid take a night off, especially with an Eastern Conference Finals rematch against Atlanta coming up on Saturday. With all that in mind it’s nearly impossible to find an edge one way or another. It’s hard to make the case for anything here but the Under. Grant and Embiid are both officially questionable, but the wind is blowing in the direction of both missing the contest. Should that happen, this total should drop and it’s already heading in that direction with the hook disappearing from the opening number.

*Atlanta Hawks (-2, 222) at *Washington Wizards

Both teams are coming off of massive wins on Wednesday night, but it is the Wizards in the tougher spot with the loss of Daniel Gafford to injury last night. Gafford suffered what is being called a quad contusion and he is expected to undergo an MRI early today. One would assume that makes him unavailable today and he might not be the only one. Spencer Dinwiddie is coming off of a knee injury that caused him to miss last season and could be rested on the second leg of a back-to-back, and Rui Hachimura’s status is a mystery. Gafford is a massive piece for this Wizards team and early in the season has improved Washington’s net rating by 5.6 points every 100 possessions. If Dinwiddie does rest the Wizards are going to be in a tough spot tonight and it is why the market has gone toward Atlanta is now -3 across the board. The Hawks have been consistent on defense and have allowed just 97.9 points every 100 possessions through four games. With limited offensive personnel this could be a slog for Bradley Beal and the Wizards. Atlanta could be getting Lou Williams back tonight as well after Danilo Gallinari made his debut last night; another advantage for the road team.

Play: Hawks -3

New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls (-2, 216)

Zach LaVine is dealing with a small tear in the tendon of his left thumb and could be sidelined for this contest, which is obviously a massive blow for a Bulls team that has been navigating through one of the easiest schedules in the NBA to this point. LaVine left the door open for him to play through the pain, but it is still an unfavorable spot to be in when hosting a Knicks team that comes in 3-1 SU and ATS. New York is going to test Chicago’s perimeter defense tonight with this new emphasis on 3-point shooting for their offense. Through four games the Knicks are averaging 46.0 attempts from deep per game and shooting 38.0% as a team. That style of offense will lead to some high variance and that was on display against Philadelphia on Tuesday when they shot 16-of-36 and averaged 1.22 points per possession. The Bulls have been solid along the perimeter on defense, limiting opponents to take just 30.6% of their attempts from deep and shoot just 34.3% on those attempts. However, none of their opponents are shooting higher than 35.1% from the perimeter as a team. One thing to watch here is the Knicks’ own perimeter defense. Yet again, New York is getting away with allowing open 3-point attempts. Through four games 20.4% of opponent attempts for the Knicks are considered wide-open, but they are shooting just 34.7% on those looks. Chicago currently leads the league in 3-point shooting and can put five shooters on the floor at one time. Personally, I have been looking to take my shot against the Knicks but with LaVine’s injury this does not look to be the spot.

Utah Jazz (-9, 223.5) at Houston Rockets

Houston has been much more competitive than originally expected and enter tonight off a cover against an inflated favorite in Dallas. That is not the case here as the Jazz deserve to be laying this number on the road, but it will be an interesting test of Houston’s strengths tonight. The Rockets enter this matchup with the 11th-ranked perimeter defense which has allowed just 34.0% to opposing shooters. Utah takes 44.0% of its attempts from beyond the arc and they will test the legitimacy of that number for Houston tonight, but the real matchup will be inside. The Rockets are 26th in opponent rim shooting so far this season, allowing opponents to hit 68.7% of their attempts within four feet. The Jazz are solid team at the hoop, ranking 11th in frequency of attempts and 13th in shooting through three games. On the other end, one must wonder how the Rockets operate offensively. They have attempted 41.0% of their shots within four feet and with Rudy Gobert on the floor the Jazz rank 8th in both opponent frequency of attempts and shooting accuracy. Statistically it does not seem like a great matchup for Houston’s offense and this likely why we’ve seen this total plummet to 220.5 at some shops this morning. 

San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks (-6.5, 221.5)

At this point it seems somewhat clear that the betting market has overvalued the Dallas Mavericks, but that same market is starting to adjust its rating. Dallas was catching just 2.5 points in its blowout loss to Atlanta and on Tuesday they were bet up to -10.5 but could not cover the inflated number. Today, they opened at -6.5 but -6 populates the board now as the Spurs have become a popular play at the window. San Antonio treated bettors well with a 2-0 ATS start but losses to Milwaukee and Los Angeles have caused them to drop their last two decisions against the number. It is not surprising to see the market support them once more here, but it might not be the spot. Doug McDermott is expected to miss three games with knee swelling and that’s quite the blow for this Spurs offense. McDermott is their best shooter, hitting 45.5% of his attempts to start the season, and that is with San Antonio currently shooting just 31.1% from deep as a team. That leads me to believe that there might be some value in the favorite, but the injury to Kristaps Porzingis gives me pause.

*Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors (-5, 233)

Some handicappers love the ‘playoff revenge’ angle early in the NBA season and we have one here. The market is coming in on Golden State as they are now -6 at almost every shop and that is not surprising as we usually see the market add a point or so for a team on the second leg of a back-to-back which Memphis is. The Grizzlies had a tough time limiting the Trail Blazers’ offense last night, allowing Portland to average 1.172 points per possession and go 15-of-35 from beyond the arc. That poor perimeter defense, which now ranks 29th after last night, is going to be tested by a Warriors team that takes 38.8% of its attempts from deep and shoots 38.4% on those shots. Bettors probably cannot expect that defense to turn things around 24 hours later, but there is a worrisome trend developing for Golden State that leaves me wanting no part of this team. With Steph Curry off the floor the Warriors are averaging just 96.0 points per 100 possessions and they were just + 4 in the minutes he spent on the bench against Oklahoma City two nights ago. Memphis is a deep offensive team and those could be troublesome minutes yet again tonight.

Best Bets Summary

Hawks -3

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Matt Youmans: Heat (+8.5) at Nuggets. View more picks.


The Lombardi Line: Both the Nuggets and Heat shot poorly in Game 1 of the NBA Finals - and the total is down five points in Game 2 (219.5 to 214.5). Consider betting the OVER if you expect any positive regression. View more tips.