NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Thursday 10/27

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 

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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

All game lines via the VSiN NBA Odds page.

Daily Recap

It was a busy night in the Association, but all eyes were on Milwaukee where the Nets were taking on the Bucks and the result was not great for the road team. Brooklyn fell to 1-3 SU and ATS on the season with a 110-99 loss, and Giannis Antetokounmpo ran wild with 43 points on 16-off-25 shooting. Clearly this disjointed season is already wearing on the team and we’re starting to see it out on the court. First, we saw Steve Nash get ejected for the first time in his career.

 

 

We also witnessed a great moment where Ben Simmons passed out of a potential shot attempt with Kyrie Irving caught on court microphones pleading with him to shoot the ball.

 

 

After the game Irving got somewhat testy with the media in how he and the Nets are dealing with bringing Simmons back from a long layoff.

 

 

In all, this does not seem to be going well for Brooklyn. 

Market Report for Thursday, October 27th

* Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Record: 6-6 | Units: -0.54 | ROI: -4.5%

Los Angeles Clippers (-6.5, 216.5) at Oklahoma City Thunder

Los Angeles continues to have issues when it comes to availability of personnel. Kawhi Leonard will not play tonight as they continue to manage his time played, Marcus Morris is still out for personal reasons and Paul George is questionable to play with the illness that kept him out on Tuesday. Without George and Morris the Clippers struggled on offense in the first meeting with the Thunder, averaging just 0.922 points per possession. That has been the issue for Los Angeles this entire season, as they come into tonight 29th in offensive efficiency in non-garbage time minutes (101.0). The same can be said for Oklahoma City, which has put up 105.4 points per 100 possessions on offense and will be without Josh Giddey once more tonight.

Having said that, the market has been moving swiftly on this total, as it is up to 217.5 at quite a few shops. Tuesday’s game was played at a quick pace, with 102 possessions for both teams, but it went well under due to some poor offensive play. There is a good chance George makes his return tonight, so if both offenses can be more productive and the pace remains then this is a good candidate to go Over. I didn't get the best number here, but this is playable at this number by my measure.

Play: OVER 217

Best Games

Dallas Mavericks at *Brooklyn Nets (-1.5, 228.5)

As discussed in our recap, the Nets seem to be on the verge of falling apart after a tough loss in Milwaukee. Now, they head back home on the second leg of a back-to-back to host the Mavericks. The betting market is reacting accordingly, making Dallas the road favorite here after Brooklyn opened -1.5 overnight. It might seem like the perfect time to continue to fade the Nets, but I am not so sure. The Mavericks have been somewhat inconsistent on defense this season, and that showed up in the loss to the Pelicans which did not have Zion Williamson or Brandon Ingram. New Orleans averaged 1.215 points per possession, went 21-of-26 at the rim and 12-of-27 from beyond the arc. Their inconsistency showed up in their blown lead to Phoenix to open the season as well. There is also the question of who takes on Kevin Durant defensively, as the team lacks a true physical matchup for him that won’t give away some height. Brooklyn also has Royce O’Neale and Ben Simmons to throw at Luka Doncic defensively, although neither will truly shut him down.

The Nets playing on a back-to-back does leave some mystery with their personnel. Kevin Durant and Ben Simmons are candidates to miss the game with rest, and if either of them do not play then Brooklyn cannot be an option tonight. However, if both play and the market continues to move on Dallas then the home team becomes viable. We saw on Monday that the market greatly overvalued the Mavericks in that spot against a short-handed New Orleans team, and it might be doing that here against a sliding Brooklyn squad. There are already a couple shops at -3 as I write this so this is going to be a game we must monitor throughout the day.

*Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors (-7.5, 225.5)

Miami looked much more like itself last night in its win over Portland. The Heat limited the Trail Blazers to 102.4 points per possession in non-garbage time, hit 15-of-33 3-point attempts and dominated in transition on their way to the victory. Against these smaller, more guard-oriented teams Miami should be able to avoid having its lack of size exploited, and they get another opponent built like that in Golden State. 

The Warriors are coming off a lopsided loss in Phoenix in which the final score does not really paint a full picture. It was a close game until the air was let out of the balloon when Klay Thompson was ejected, and it seemed Golden State was ready to move on after that. The market has moved against them here, but I believe it’s more about the matchup than anything else. Miami can match Golden State’s small-ball lineups which it uses, and there is no true center on the roster that can dominate a smaller Bam Adebayo on the glass. This is down to 6.5 at every shop and I do not disagree at all. In fact, I was slow on the trigger and could not get the 7.5 personally, which leaves me on the outside looking in here.

The Other

Memphis Grizzlies (-4.5, 235.5) at Sacramento Kings

This game does not interest me much, but it does interest the betting market. This line has been steadily heading in the direction of Sacramento and there are a few shops which bottomed out at -2.5 before coming back to the consensus -3 on the screen. I understand the move to a certain degree, but the market has had this odd infatuation with the Kings since before the season began. Sacramento did cover against Golden State three days ago – three days of rest this early is wild for an NBA team – and perhaps it’s that factor which is playing a role here. However, this defense has been just as poor as expected (116.0 defensive rating) and I’m not sure I trust this team to make a stop when it needs to. John Konchar is questionable for Memphis and that would be a blow for a team which is getting thinner by the day, but this is a game between two teams I believe to be overvalued by the betting market and I feel no desire to get involved.

Best Bet Recap

Clippers/Thunder OV 217

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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