NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Sunday 5/22

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 

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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Sunday, May 22nd

*Lines are opening numbers

Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks (-2, 218.5)

Game 3: Warriors lead 2-0

If Dallas can take solace in anything that has transpired through the first two games of this series, it is that the team is undefeated when it comes to the shot quality score. However, that means nothing in the grand scheme of things, as they head home in another 2-0 series hole with a -19.7 net rating in non-garbage time minutes. Since the start of the conference semifinals the Mavericks have been a completely different team at home, posting a 3-0 SU and ATS record in those games against the Suns with a + 15.2 net rating, but in six road games they are now 1-5 SU and ATS with a -8.6 net rating. Perhaps all they need is the friendly confines of American Airlines Center to finally hit some shots with consistency.

Through two games in this series Dallas is shooting just 36.5% on wide-open 3-point attempts despite averaging 26.0 per game. Meanwhile, Golden State has averaged just 11.0 wide-open attempts from deep per game but has shot 45.5% on those attempts. According to Cleaning The Glass the Warriors have an effective field goal percentage of 64.3% in this series so far, but their location effective field goal percentage – what the team’s percentage would be if it shot league average from each location – is actually 51.1% which is much more in line with what the Mavericks have done in this series. When one team is taking advantage of its opportunities while greatly exceeding expectations on shot quality and the other fails to do so we get what we have seen in this series through two games. Being back home should give Dallas a boost, but it could also hamper the Warriors as this team is just 2-3 SU/1-4 ATS on the road this postseason with a -13.1 net rating in non-garbage time minutes. 

The team down two games and coming back home is an angle bettors will hammer, and we’re seeing this at every turn. As previously mentioned, Dallas is -3 at quite a few shops, and this is while laying -2 in the first quarter and -3 in the first half. If calculating homecourt with the median result of home teams then home court advantage comes out to being worth 4.0 points. If that is the case, then a line of Mavericks -3 at home would translate to Warriors -5 in San Francisco. That does not make much sense given how we just watched Golden State cover consecutive games as -5.5 and -6 favorites. By that line of thinking there is clearly some line value for the road team today but given how well Dallas has played at home I am willing to sit this one out.

Best Bet Summary

None

Season Record: 98-80-2

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A Numbers Game: Pay attention to stats and trends that are completely lopsided. For example, Matt Rhule and the Panthers are 1-25 straight up when allowing their opponent to score 17 or more points.

Follow The Money: Be aware of Miami's backloaded schedule when betting either side of their 11.5 win total. In December: at SF, at LAC, at BUF, vs GB.

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Adam Burke: Washington -2.5 vs UCLA

Pauly Howard: Golden Knights Under 97 points for the season.

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

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