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NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Sunday 5/1

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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Sunday, May 1st

*Lines are opening numbers

Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics (-4.5, 218)

Game 1: Series tied 0-0

Both teams will enter the first game of this series well rested, one more so than the other. Boston has not played since Monday when it ousted Brooklyn via sweep, and Milwaukee last played on Wednesday when it eliminated Chicago. The longer layoff for the Celtics could be seen as either a negative or a positive but given Jaylen Brown’s hamstring got time to recover its hard to view this as anything but good for the favorite. With Brown able to play and the Bucks missing Khris Middleton for the start of the series the advantage goes to the favorite, but I still cannot help but think the market is somewhat high on Boston. The series price of -200 carries an implied probability of 66.7% which is somewhat strong, even for me who rates the Celtics as the better team with Middleton available. It would also lead me to think this opening line is inflated as well. Milwaukee rates as a better team than the Brooklyn Nets as currently constructed, yet the Bucks are catching an even bigger number in Game 1 than the Nets did. Homecourt has not proven to be worth much in the postseason through two weeks, so a bigger number against a better opponent makes little sense here. Boston is an incredible team that is one of the rare few who are suited to battle with Giannis Antetokounmpo, but the market seems to be at a high with them so I’ll grab the points today with the underdog.

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