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NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Sunday 4/24


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Sunday, April 24th

*Lines are opening numbers

Golden State Warriors (-3.5, 224) at Denver Nuggets

Game 4: Warriors lead 3-0

The betting market has made yet another adjustment on the power rating for Golden State, and it is going to get me on the Denver side today. The Warriors are now as high as -5 on the screen at South Point, a line that 3.5 points higher than the one I laid in Game 3 and would translate to an 11-point spread back in San Francisco. Some might believe that adjustment to apt, but that’s a near 4.5-point adjustment from Game 1 of the series to today and that is just somewhat much. Last time out the Warriors trailed the Nuggets by a bucket with just under three minutes left in the game. A late run gave them the win and cover, but Denver is clearly much comfortable at home and there is value in a number this high. Personally, I thought the opener of Warriors -3 was perfect, as it was right in line with what I made it and it still accounted for an adjustment that needed to be made as the initial gap between these two at the start of the series was too small. However, making it -3 would mean a five-point gap on a neutral, not the 7.5- or 8-point gap the market has up right now. If the betting market is going ratchet up the number this high I have no choice but to back the underdog here.

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