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NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Sunday 4/17


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Sunday, April 17th

*Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat (-6.5, 215.5)

In the four games we saw in the regular season this number did not close any higher than -4.5 and that was in favor of Miami at home back in January. However, it is hard to take anything from the regular season series given the revolving door of personnel from Miami which did not have its complete starting group in any of the meetings with Atlanta this season. Atlanta is also coming into this game shorthanded, as Clint Capela will be sidelined for early portion of this series with that hyperextended knee suffered in the play-in win over Cleveland. The absence of Capela coupled with the potential availability of the Heat’s entire starting group would probably get this number to the 6.5 that is up right now at most shops, but it seems strong. For starters, the Hawks have handled the minutes without Capela very well. Onykea Okongwu has been a great option at center, and Atlanta is + 4.9 per 100 possessions when he is at the five. Add to that the news that John Collins is also expected to make his return from injury today and you get an interesting scenario for Atlanta today. Homecourt is certainly worth more in the postseason, but by how much? Miami closed -1.5 in the final meeting between these two teams nine days ago and it was a 113-109 final that came down to free throws, and the only unavailable member of consequence for the Heat was PJ Tucker.  Not only has the betting market bumped this up to 6.5 at the open, but some shops are a half-point higher. The real move here has come on the total which is up four points to 219.5 across the board. These two teams were below average in terms of pace this season, but Miami is an efficient transition team which can exploit Atlanta’s 29th-ranked transition defense, and the Hawks will consistently hunt the weak link in the Heat’s starting five like they did to Lauri Markkanen on Friday.

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