NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Sunday 11/13

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 

November 13, 2022 10:18 AM
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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

All game lines via the VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Sunday, November 13th

* Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Record: 15-19 | Units: -4.31 | ROI: -13.45%

No best bets today

The Rest

Oklahoma City Thunder at New York Knicks (-5.5, 225.5)

Both Oklahoma City and New York have been playing some inconsistent basketball coming into this early morning matchup. The Thunder snapped an 0-4 SU and ATS slide when it dispatched a short-handed Toronto team on Friday, and with the cover on Friday against the Pistons the Knicks are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games. It would seem that Oklahoma City’s defense, which is seventh in points allowed per 100 possessions (110.9), has the edge today, but the Thunder’s lack of size could offset that great defense. Opponents have grabbed 29.6% of their missed shot attempts against Oklahoma City, and New York has proven to be a great offensive rebounding team, ranking fifth in offensive rebounding rate (30.7%). It’s likely the Thunder do not keep the Knicks off the glass here, and it’s just as likely the New York’s poor transition defense does not contain Oklahoma City which has the seventh highest transition frequency in the league (17.0%). It would make sense to see a high scoring affair here, and the market agrees as the total is up to 226.5 consensus.

Memphis Grizzlies at *Washington Wizards (-2.5, 221)

Ja Morant and Desmond Bane are both considered doubtful for Memphis tonight, so that is why we see Washington as a 2.5-point favorite at home. The Wizards have proven to be a competent basketball team recently and enter this game 4-2 SU/5-1 ATS in their last six games despite not having Bradley Beal on the floor for the last four contests. Beal is out of health and safety protocol but unlikely to play tonight. Given the injury issues hampering the Grizzles today it is hard to make a case for them unless this line starts to get out of hand. They average only 1.062 points per possession without Morant and Bane on the floor, and while the Wizards are not an incredible defensive team (20th, 113.3) they are among the best defensive rebounding teams in the league which will go a long way toward this matchup against Memphis which leads the league in offensive rebounding rate (33.8%). There has been a point shaved off this line by the market, something that usually happens when a team is playing on a back-to-back like Washington, and this total is down 3.5 points from the open.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Cleveland Cavaliers (-5, 226.5)

Minnesota comes into this game on a 1-6 SU and ATS slide, and there are no signs that this team is close to figuring out the issues that plague it. The Timberwolves are averaging just 111.1 points per 100 possessions on offense, the 22nd ranked offensive rating in non-garbage time, and this defense has slipped to 16th in efficiency (112.1). It would make sense to avoid this team until it shows a sign of life, but tonight could be a good opportunity for it. Cleveland is back home after an unsuccessful west coast trip in which it went 2-3 SU and ATS, losing and failing to cover the last three. Being back home might be a positive, but the injury report is lengthy. Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen and Dean Wade are all questionable to play with various injuries, and two of those players – Mitchell and Allen – will have a massive effect on this line if they cannot play. The market is not moving much on the side, but the total is down four points this morning and will likely move even more if Mitchell cannot play.

*Utah Jazz at *Philadelphia 76ers (-3.5, 220.5)

With both teams coming in on back-to-backs the injury report is always key. Philadelphia suffered a couple of injuries in their win over Atlanta on Saturday, so theirs will be the most important report to get your hands on. De’Anthony Melton missed the game with back stiffness and Furkan Korkmaz injured his knee in the first half. On top of that, Joel Embiid has been battling illness, conditioning issues and knee soreness all season long and is a candidate for a rest day with the 76ers looking at three days off between this game and their next. The only move here has been the total, which is down to 218.5 consensus as of this morning.

Denver Nuggets (-1, 231.5) at Chicago Bulls

The betting market is behind Denver here despite the 0-3 ATS slide the team is currently riding. The Nuggets’ bench is also very thin with the absences of Bones Hyland and Ish Smith, both of whom are out of this game. Meanwhile, Chicago has surprised the market once again with a strong 8-5 ATS start to the season, but the team has dropped two of its last three entering this game. The Bulls enter this game fifth in non-garbage time defensive efficiency, allowing just 109.9 points per 100 possessions, but some shot quality data would suggest some fraudulence in those defensive numbers. Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets, which average 117.3 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, could be the unit to exploit that and the market seems to be behind that theory, as evidenced by this number being bet up to -2 consensus.

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

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A Numbers Game: An easy place to get a leg up for new bettors is just shopping futures prices. It is easy to find major differences often. i.e. Virginia 30-1 vs 16-1. View more tips.

Follow The Money: Bet as early as possible when bowl lines come out. Lines can move more than a TD in 2-3 weeks before a game. View more tips.
 
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Gill Alexander: Seahawks -7 vs Browns.  View more picks.

Wes Reynolds: Jets +3 at Vikings.  View more picks.

 

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