NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Sunday 10/30

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 

October 30, 2022 06:51 AM
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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

All game lines via the VSiN NBA Odds page.

Daily Recap

The Oklahoma City might be my favorite team in the league. The kids can absolutely hoop. In the waning seconds of the third quarter a Shai Gilgeous-Alexander bucket give the Thunder a 72-69 lead over the Mavericks. It was the cap on an 8-0 run that Oklahoma City had erupted for after trailing by five a few minutes earlier. To start the fourth quarter Mark Daigneault went with the hockey substitution and replaced four of the five guys on the floor, and the results were disastrous. Dallas ran off on a 26-7 run at the start of the quarter against the Thunder reserves and a 10-point underdog looked dead on the road.

However, trailing by 16 points with 4:48 left in the contest the Thunder closed the game on a blistering 18-2 run. Isaiah Joe – who finished the game with 15 points on 4-of-4 shooting – scored 7 of the 18 points, the most crucial being the tying 3-point make with 15.8 seconds left to go. Then Lu Dort did his thing in the final seconds of regulation to force overtime.

 

 

Oklahoma City would go on to win the game outright to improve to 3-3 SU/5-1 ATS on the season. The Thunder’s three wins have come against the Clippers (Twice) and Mavericks, and they have looked extremely competent in their three losses. The price on Oklahoma City to make the playoffs is about 20-1 (Pointsbet), and that is a bet that would be very much worth making if we knew what the organization’s goals this season were.

Market Report for Sunday, October 30th

* Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Record: 9-8 | Units: + 0.19 | ROI: + 1.12%

New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Clippers (-2.5, 224.5)

Herb Jones and Zion Williamson are both questionable to play, but it was made clear in reporting on Friday that Williamson would be available tonight against Los Angeles. Expect him to take the floor and expect this number to move in favor of the Pelicans to some extent. I would also expect that this total starts to rise as well with that news, and because of the matchup. New Orleans has a good size advantage here and should be able to work the glass against Los Angeles which has grabbed just 50.3% of available rebounds in its games so far. That should mean more second chance points for the Pelicans as well, something which they do very well as they are second in offensive rebounding (34.9%) and fourth in second chance points per game (17.4).

At this point of the season, especially if Williamson is going to be back on the floor, New Orleans rates as the better team. Kawhi Leonard went back to Los Angeles when the team was on the road and will not play tonight, and the Clippers are struggling to find an identity on offense, and we saw against a team like Phoenix which has a big to work against these forwards they had trouble on defense. I will try to get ahead of the line move here and take the Pelicans on the road, as well as the Over considering the matchup looks like one that could provide some scoring. This is a gamble considering Williamson’s status, but I will buy into reports on Friday that told us this game was the target for his return.

Play: Pelicans (+ 2.5) for 0.5u, OVER (224.5) for 0.5u

 

Best Game

New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers (-4.5, 222.5)

Both teams are off to good starts, but Cleveland has stolen the show early. Despite losing Darius Garland to an eye injury in the first game of the season – he is still out today against New York – the Cavaliers are 4-1 SU and ATS with a league-leading + 1.4 net rating in non-garbage time minutes. Shot quality data would suggest that Cleveland is getting somewhat lucky early this season, so bettors should expect some regression for this offense at some point. It might come against the Knicks though, who have an allowed effective field goal percentage of 48.8% but a location effective field goal percentage of 54.7% according to Cleaning The Glass. The market has been moving toward New York and the Under this morning, not something I entirely agree with given what we have seen from the Knicks’ defense.

The Others

Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics (-8.5, 223.5)

The story here will be Boston’s defense which has allowed 119.0 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. That defense has held them back to a certain extent, and the Celtics have failed to cover their last three games as a result. There has not been a real move on the side, but this total is down to 221 consensus. Injury note: Malcolm Brogdon is questionable to play.

*Golden State Warriors (-8, 230.5) at Detroit Pistons

Golden State had an overtime game in Charlotte yesterday in which Steph Curry, Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins played 37 minutes or more. With an earlier start time today, there was chatter from Steve Kerr after the game about rest for some of the players today. The betting market is moving here like someone is not playing, as the Warriors are now -6.5 at both Circa and Westgate.

Minnesota Timberwolves (-5.5, 235.5) at San Antonio Spurs

The only move of note this morning is on the total, which is now 238.5 consensus after opening 235.5 at most shops. It’s an interesting move as Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 107.7 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time while their offense has been somewhat inconsistent with a 112.9 offensive rating. San Antonio has also been on the right end of positive variance when it comes to shooting the ball, something that could come to an end tonight.

Orlando Magic at *Dallas Mavericks (-9.5, 217)

Dallas blew a 16-point lead in under five minutes last night and ended up losing in overtime to Oklahoma City. It could be a poor situational spot tonight, but Orlando does not have the defensive hound to sick on Luka Doncic like Lu Dort. The line is right in line with the open, but the total has been bet down four points to 213 market wide. 

Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns (-12, 229)

DeAndre Ayton is out tonight for Phoenix which is a tough blow as Houston does not really have a center to truly match up with him on defense. Meanwhile, rookie Jabari Smith Jr. is questionable for the Rockets with an ankle sprain and Eric Gordon is not going to play because of a groin injury. This number initially went toward the road team, but once the injury report became clear we saw the Suns get -13 at most shops.

Denver Nuggets (-3.5, 220) at Los Angeles Lakers

Anthony Davis and Juan Toscano-Anderson are questionable to play tonight as the Lakers desperately search for their first win of the season. Last time out Los Angeles was held to under a point per possession for the fourth time in five games, and until there is some sort of tangible evidence that this offense is changing there is no need to push the issue and catch them on a good night. The betting market has bet up Denver a half-point but the biggest move has been on the total which is now 228 everywhere!

Best Bet Recap

Pelicans (+ 2.5) for 0.5u

Pelicans/Clippers OV 224.5 for 0.5u

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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