NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Saturday 4/23

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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Saturday, April 23rd

*Lines are opening numbers

Philadelphia 76ers (-2.5, 214.5) at Toronto Raptors

Game 4: 76ers lead 3-0

After squandering a potential series saving victory in Game 3 the Raptors are back on the floor with a chance to bring this series back to Philadelphia. If they play their game like they did on Wednesday then it is certainly plausible they can force a fifth game in this series. Toronto’s defense finally showed up in Game 3 and limited Philadelphia to 1.108 points per possession while forcing turnovers on 25.8% of their offensive possessions. The Raptors also mucked the game up and finally slowed down the 76ers’ transition offense by holding them to 1.0 point per play. However, missed free throws and bad execution killed their chances at splitting the series deficit in half, and that could hold them back yet again today. Toronto had a 90.9 offensive rating in halfcourt settings on Wednesday which is right in line with a team that finished near the bottom of the league in that category in the regular season. The disjointed effort on offense is why Philadelphia was able to creep back into Game 3 and why Toronto is going to find it difficult to pull away from this team today. Scottie Barnes is doubtful still and there is no reason to rush him back now that the series stands where it does. The number is high on the 76ers but with my series bet on the Raptors waiting to be burned I will not be involved here. Total is down to 213 and if it gets back to 214 that would be worth playing Under given how slow this series has been. 

Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz (-3.5, 211.5)

Game 4: Mavericks lead 2-1

There is some interesting noise around this game and we should get some clarity shortly after you read this. Luka Doncic has been upgraded to questionable for this contest, and it seems that he could make his debut tonight. According to ESPN’s Tim MacMahon, Doncic has been doing full-speed basketball activity since Tuesday and played 5-on-5 on both Thursday and Friday while not experiencing any pain or discomfort. Despite all that, this line has moved toward Utah. From a number standpoint it is odd that we have seen this move toward the home team considering how often the market reacts to the slightest amount of information. Doncic aside, the Mavericks still have a fantastic chance at not only covering but winning yet again. Dallas’ dribble-penetration has killed Utah and it has exploited the same issues the team has had for years. The Mavericks have attempted 62 uncontested 3-point shots in this series and is shooting 43.5% on those attempts. Over the last two games Dallas has built summer homes from the corners of the floor, hitting 15-of-28 (53.6%) of their corner 3-pointers. A poor shooting night completely derails this thing for the Mavericks, but we have seen at this point that the Jazz are not going to improve their defensive effort, so if they are to win and cover this game I would expect a better effort from them on offense. Having said that, I took a bad number here. Yesterday I took + 5 with Dallas expecting the market to react to the news of Doncic’s impending return. Instead, we are up to -6 with no real news or movement. All the indicators are there that he is making his debut today in this series, but if he doesn’t bettors can likely get 7.5 when he’s officially ruled out. As we have seen though, do not rule out Dallas if that is the case.

Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets (-3, 223.5)

Game 3: Celtics lead 2-0

Brooklyn grabbed a cover but not a win in the first two games of this series, and now they return home down two games with Robert Williams set to return to action for Boston. Williams should not be expected to alter much today as he is on a minutes restriction, but how the betting market reacts to that news will dictate how I bet this game today. There has not been much separating these two teams through two games. The Nets blew a late lead and lost in Game 1 and then squandered a 17-point lead in Game 2 while failing to cover. For me, there is no reason to adjust the power rating for either team and 3.5 is the number I came up with for this game which is just factoring in homecourt. However, we’ve seen this open -3 and sit there since it was posted. If the betting market drops this under that number and this gets to 2.5 or better then I will be betting Brooklyn today. Despite the struggles of Kevin Durant in this series – 25.0 points per game on 31.7% shooting with 6 turnovers per game – the Nets are averaging 116.3 points per 100 possessions in the series and 1.667 points per play in transition. Yes the Celtics have defended Durant extremely well, but playing back home on a cheap number is a deal that is worth taking in my opinion. So, if we get this number to that 2.5 mark consider me a Nets fan tonight.

Memphis Grizzlies (-3, 233.5) at Minnesota Timberwolves

Game 4: Grizzlies lead 2-1

When this series began I came into it with the mindset of betting Minnesota in every game. I did not quite believe that the Timberwolves would win the series, but the market rating on the Grizzlies was too high and that was my strategy for handling that overrating. Three games and a blown 21-point lead later I am 1-2 ATS in this series by backing Minnesota as I believed, but I am not giving that up here. The Timberwolves were brilliant in their defensive play in their Game 3 loss. They held Memphis to 107.2 points per 100 possessions, forced turnovers on 18.6% of their possessions and limited them to a 17-of-32 (53.1%) shooting night at the rim. There really is no need to ratchet up the Grizzlies’ power rating in this series after what has transpired in the last two games, but the betting market has. Oddsmakers have clearly adjusted the worth of homecourt to three points in the postseason. Memphis -3 on the road would be equivalent to -9 at home which is two points higher than the closing line in Games 1 and 2 of this series. This is all about the number and sticking to my guns. Karl-Anthony Towns does need to put forth a better effort than 8 points with foul trouble, but I believe that will happen tonight.

Play: Timberwolves (+ 3)

Best Bet Summary

Timberwolves (+ 3)

Season Record: 87-68-2

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