NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Saturday 11/12

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 

November 12, 2022 09:41 AM
USATSI_19394547

Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

All game lines via the VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Saturday, November 12th

* Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Record: 15-18 | Units: -3.31 | ROI: -10.66%

Brooklyn Nets at Los Angeles Clippers (-2, 212.5)

Paul George is averaging 30.7 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game over the last six contests, and Los Angeles is 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in their last six games as a result. They’re also allowing just 105.0 points per 100 possessions during this run, and they come into this game as the second-best defensive team in the league at 108.4 points per 100 possessions allowed. That defense will have to deal with Kevin Durant, who has been averaging 27.5 points, 8.3 rebounds and 7.3 assists during the Nets’ 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS run. During this cover streak the Nets have been quietly playing a quality brand of defense, allowing just 95.0 points per 100 possessions. The line is Clippers -1.5 is low enough to warrant a play for me given how well they're playing on defense.

Play: Clippers (-1.5)

The Rest

Best Bet Recap
 
Clippers (-1.5)

The Rest

Utah Jazz (-3.5, 222) at Washington Wizards

Utah is 6-1 SU/7-0 ATS in its last seven games with a +9.7 net rating. As we have come to expect with this team, their rebounding has been great during this run, but this might not be a matchup that works for them as well. Washington is the second-best defensive rebounding team in the league (74.9%), and they have allowed the second fewest plays per 100 missed shot attempts in the league (15.7). Bradley Beal is still out and Taj Gibson is doubtful to play, but the market has moved toward the home team by a half-point. The move of consequence has come on the Under, as this total is down 1.5 points to 221 consensus.

*Boston Celtics (-9, 223.5) at *Detroit Pistons

Boston’s win over Denver last night was its fifth straight, and the team is 3-1 ATS in its last four games. The Celtics’ defense is still showing its inconsistencies – they allowed 1.225 points per possession last night – but this offense is still among the best in the league and showing no signs of slowing down. Boston has surpassed 1.3 points per possession in three of its last four games, one of those being the win over Detroit on Wednesday. The Pistons’ defense has allowed 119.5 points per 100 possessions this season, and it is unlikely they have the ability to contain the Celtics’ offense. It is likely why the betting market is moving in Boston’s direction, as 9.5 is the consensus number as of this morning and the total is up to 227. Monitor the injury report for both teams today, as both Cade Cunningham and Malcolm Brogdon are questionable at best.

*Toronto Raptors (-2.5, 228.5) at Indiana Pacers

Toronto looked like a team that was missing its top two forwards on Friday night. The Raptors managed only 1.061 points per possession on offense, and their defense was pounded on the glass by the Thunder which grabbed 47.2% of its missed shot attempts in non-garbage time. It would make sense for the market to adjust its rating on a beat-up Toronto squad, but this is quite the swing. The Raptors closed -5 on the road against the Thunder yesterday, but are now 1.5-point underdogs to a team that is similarly rated to the Thunder? Indiana has covered six straight, but this seems like an overreaction to the performance of Toronto last night. 

Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers (-3.5, 220.5)

The angle to track here is the total. When these two teams met on Thursday night there was 106 possessions in the game, but both teams averaged under a point per possession and the game went well under the total. Today, we saw this number open up at 220 which is two points lower than the closing number on Thursday, and the betting market reacted accordingly in betting it up to the current number 223.5 consensus. There has not been a real move on the side yet, but Philadelphia does come in on a small 1-3 SU and ATS slump.

Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat (-10, 215)

Charlotte snapped an 0-6 ATS slide with a cover in overtime against Miami, but the offense hardly looked any better in the process. The Hornets averaged only 1.057 points per possession in the game, and tonight they are still without LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward. To make matters worse, Dennis Smith Jr. injured his ankle in that game and is questionable to play tonight. Miami has its own injuries to deal with as well. Both Dewayne Dedmon and Tyler Herro are questionable as well, leaving this game with a lot of noise and a big number. Miami has been very overvalued by the betting market to start the season and the failed cover Thursday dropped them to 2-9-1 ATS on the season.

Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans (-10, 230.5)

The luster has certainly worn off for New Orleans, but the betting market has not caught up yet. The Pelicans’ loss on Thursday dropped them to 1-5 ATS in the month of November and 5-7 ATS on the season. In the six games this month New Orleans laid an average of 4.75 points and here they are laying 10.5 today after getting bet up from the opening number. Houston has not been a covering machine either and their inability to rebound defensively (69.7%, 24th) does not lend itself to a competitive game tonight against a team that can attack the offensive glass like the Pelicans.

back to news

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

 

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

A Numbers Game: An easy place to get a leg up for new bettors is just shopping futures prices. It is easy to find major differences often. i.e. Virginia 30-1 vs 16-1. View more tips.

Follow The Money: Bet as early as possible when bowl lines come out. Lines can move more than a TD in 2-3 weeks before a game. View more tips.
 
Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Gill Alexander: Seahawks -7 vs Browns.  View more picks.

Wes Reynolds: Jets +3 at Vikings.  View more picks.

 

Close