NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Saturday 10/29

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 

October 29, 2022 08:30 AM

Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

All game lines via the VSiN NBA Odds page.

Daily Recap

For the recap today I wanted to extend some advice for those who need it. The last few days I have received some questions about player availability and how I keep track of it. The answer is the official NBA injury report. It’s updated every 30 minutes and is a fantastic tool to put in your belt as a handicapper. Sites like Rotoworld are slow on the updates, and this is information right from the source.

Market Report for Saturday, October 29th

* Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Record: 8-7 | Units: + 0.28 | ROI: + 1.87%

Golden State Warriors (-8.5, 232.5) at *Charlotte Hornets

Charlotte looked pathetic on both ends of the court on Friday night against Orlando, but it was the offense which looked particularly lost. The Hornets put up just 0.778 points per possessions and shot 7-of-32 from deep, looking much like a team which was missing three of its top four guards. LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier and Cody Martin all missed that game with various injuries, and on the second leg of a back-to-back it’s hard to envision anyone but Ball making a surprise appearance tonight. Even if that is the case, this is a matchup that works well in Golden State’s favor.

Play: Warriors (-9.5)

Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks (-11, 220.5)

This is going to be an interesting matchup of strength on strength in Dallas. The Thunder enter this game allowing 110.2 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes which is the ninth best defensive rating in the league so far. Meanwhile, the Mavericks lead the league with an average 121.4 points per 100 possessions through five games. Many might believe Oklahoma City to be helpless here, but that might not be the case. First and foremost, Dallas’ offensive success is built on thin ice. With Luka Doncic on the floor they have a + 14.6 net rating and average 124.0 point per 100 possessions. With him off the floor that net rating is -13.5 and that offensive rating drops to 111.5 per 100 possessions. There’s also the matter of the Mavericks struggling in transition defense, something that the Thunder have been using in their favor against opponents. Oklahoma City has been undervalued by the market going back to last season, so I will ride with the disrespected ‘dog here.

Play: Thunder (+ 10.5)

Best Games

*Philadelphia 76ers (-1, 219.5) at *Chicago Bulls

Joel Embiid sat out the game against Toronto with a sore knee on Friday, so I would expect that he plays tonight after a day of rest but make sure to monitor those injury reports. Should Embiid play it should be a beneficial matchup for him going against Nikola Vucevic, but given the conditioning issues, and now knee issues, he’s been dealing with it is possible we see a restriction on his minutes. On the other end, the Bulls’ defense finally popped up and allowed 1.217 points per possession last night to the Spurs. Zach LaVine did not play but expect him out there tonight as Chicago just let him rest as he works the strength back into his knee.

*Atlanta Hawks at *Milwaukee Bucks (-6, 227)

Another contest with two teams coming in with no rest, so once more I will stress to monitor injury reports once they are released. As far as the matchup goes, I cannot wait to watch this game. Atlanta has worked its way through one of the easiest schedules in the league, and there have been some bumps in those five games. However, the team looked its best last night in putting up 1.402 points per possession in a 24-point win over Detroit. Milwaukee will be the biggest test by far, and they have no true physical matchup for Giannis Antetokounmpo who dropped 30 points on 11-of-22 shooting on my Knickerbockers last night. This number has shifted toward the Hawks from the overnight, but only by a point. The real move has been the total which is up 2.5 points consensus.

The Others

Miami Heat (-3, 227) at Sacramento Kings

Are the Kings going to play any defense this season? Through four games they have allowed 118.6 points per 100 possessions, and at least 111 points in every game. It might be the perfect opponent for the Heat which are still trying to find their footing on offense. A day after beating Portland with an average of 1.321 points per possession Miami was stymied by Golden State for an offensive rating of 109.0 in a loss. The market has this number up to -4 and the total up to 228, both moves I agree with.

*Indiana Pacers at Brooklyn Nets (-11, 235)

This market seems high for a team playing defense like Brooklyn, but sometimes the market is a stubborn beast. We’re also seeing a back-to-back tax on Indiana, which played Washington last night and looked tremendous on offense with 1.27 points per possession in a victory. Tyrese Haliburton, Buddy Hield and Myles Turner all had 25+  points in the win and should be able to have success once more against a Nets defense which has allowed 120.5 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. The injury report must be clean, but the Pacers are a strong consideration for me right now.

Memphis Grizzlies (-5, 230.5) at *Utah Jazz

Ja Morant will not play tonight which explains the line movement we have seen here, but the floor seems to be Grizzlies -2 as there has been some buyback at that number. It will be interesting to watch Memphis without Morant, as they were so successful without him last season, but that team had Jaren Jackson Jr., Kyle Anderson and De’Anthony Melton playing big minutes and none of those three will be out there tonight. The Grizzlies have a -6.2 net rating this season without Morant on the floor, and their defense has been downright poor. Not the best spot for the overvalued Grizz.

Best Bet Recap

Warriors (-9.5)

Thunder (+ 10.5)

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