NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 5/2

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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Monday, May 2nd

*Lines are opening numbers

Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat

Game 1: Series tied 0-0

Joel Embiid will not play in the first two games of this series and it seems the season is over for Philadelphia. The betting market pushed this line for Game 1 as high as Heat -8 at most shops before it settled in at the -7.5 we see on the screen this morning. Books are stacking up Miami moneyline tickets today, but not all is lost for Philadelphia here.

Most might be out on James Harden after he averaged just 19.0 points and 10.2 assists on 40.5% shooting from the floor against Toronto, but this matchup is about so much more than Harden. The Heat had a clear defensive game plan in the regular season: allow 3-point attempts. They finished 30th in both opponent 3-point frequency (41.9%) and open 3-point attempts allowed (closest defender 4-to-6 feet away). The 76ers can exploit that facet of the Heat’s defense if they want. Tyrese Maxey is a 42% 3-point shooter, Georges Niang hit 41% of his 3-point attempts this season and both Tobias Harris and Danny Green shoot better than 37% from distance. Philadelphia is a low-volume shooting team, but with no Embiid and Harden in command that should ratchet up in these first two game.

Then there is the matter of the number. The market making this 7.5 tells us that this version of Philadelphia is a point worse than Atlanta which closed + 6.5 in Game 1 of the first round. Is it? Kyle Lowry is also out too, which gives Harden and others more exploitable matchups in Gabe Vincent and Max Strus. It might be ugly for some, but I am willing to take this risk with the underdog tonight.

 

Play: 76ers (+ 7.5)

Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns

Game 1: Series tied 0-0

The two teams that had injuries to star players are now healthy and ready to face one another in the Western Conference semifinals. Phoenix is getting overwhelming support at the window in this series, as multiple shops have reported the Suns are the largest liability when it comes to series prices this round. Phoenix deserves the respect, but I cannot help but think the market is off as it pertains to the difference between these two teams. Luka Doncic is a mismatch hunting machine who will go after Chris Paul and Devin Booker consistently on the defensive end of the floor. Dallas as a team is brilliant on defense that consistently runs teams off the 3-point line and keeps them out of the restricted area. Phoenix won’t mind, as they led the league in mid-range attempts and shooting and both Paul and Booker are elite mid-range scorers. However, the bench is still a question for the Suns and it was the primary reason that series against the Pelicans was extended to six games. Phoenix is the higher rated team and deserves to be favored here and in the series. My problem here is with the price. By my ratings the Suns do not win this series 75% of the time, nor are they 4.5 points better on a neutral which is what this Game 1 line says if you buy into homecourt being worth just about 1.5 points which is what it has been in the postseason. This play is strictly a play on the number today and trusting in my ratings.

Play: Mavericks (+ 6)

Best Bet Summary

76ers (+ 7.5)

Mavericks (+ 6)

Season Record: 92-71-2

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The Lombardi Line: Bookmakers love parleys, when playing them, you want a mix of favorites and underdogs.

Pro Football Blitz: When you back teams on the raod you want a good running team, when you back teams at home you want a good passing team. With teams on the road usually the underdog, you want a team that can control time of possession like the Tennessee Titans.

 

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Shaun King: Eagles -6.5 vs Jaguars

Brendan Gaughan: Brad Keselowski Top 3 +600

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

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