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NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 5/2


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Monday, May 2nd

*Lines are opening numbers

Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat

Game 1: Series tied 0-0

Joel Embiid will not play in the first two games of this series and it seems the season is over for Philadelphia. The betting market pushed this line for Game 1 as high as Heat -8 at most shops before it settled in at the -7.5 we see on the screen this morning. Books are stacking up Miami moneyline tickets today, but not all is lost for Philadelphia here.

Most might be out on James Harden after he averaged just 19.0 points and 10.2 assists on 40.5% shooting from the floor against Toronto, but this matchup is about so much more than Harden. The Heat had a clear defensive game plan in the regular season: allow 3-point attempts. They finished 30th in both opponent 3-point frequency (41.9%) and open 3-point attempts allowed (closest defender 4-to-6 feet away). The 76ers can exploit that facet of the Heat’s defense if they want. Tyrese Maxey is a 42% 3-point shooter, Georges Niang hit 41% of his 3-point attempts this season and both Tobias Harris and Danny Green shoot better than 37% from distance. Philadelphia is a low-volume shooting team, but with no Embiid and Harden in command that should ratchet up in these first two game.

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