NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 4/25


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Monday, April 25th

*Lines are opening numbers

Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets (-2.5, 225)

Game 4: Celtics lead 3-0

It seems the Brooklyn Nets are all but done in this series. Kevin Durant has averaged 22.0 points on 38.5% shooting from the floor and 5.7 turnovers per game thanks to Boston’s smothering defense, and Kyrie Irving has scored 26 total points in the last two games. The Celtics have contained the Nets’ biggest threats and are now just a victory away from a first round sweep. Boston’s performance warrants an adjustment on their power rating, but is this the point where that adjustment is too much and there is now value on Brooklyn? When the series began the difference between these two was miniscule, with the difference between these being just homecourt advantage. However, the line for Game 4 has seen the biggest adjustment in the series with this down to -1 at most shops. This would mean a two-point line for Boston on a neutral and a five-point spread for a Game 5 back at TD Garden which is obviously a full point higher than the closing line for Game 1 which the Celtics failed to cover. It might be ugly, but I am going to bite on the line value with the Nets here. The performances of their stars have been atrocious, and much of that is due to the performance of Boston’s defense, but Brooklyn has done some things well in this series. The Nets have the best offensive rating in transition in the postseason according to Cleaning The Glass, averaging 164.3 per 100 plays in transition overall and 221.1 off live rebounds. They are also generating good looks from beyond the arc, averaging 16.0 uncontested looks per game while shooting 42.4% overall in non-garbage time. There are also worse situations than a team facing elimination at home which is 2-0 SU and ATS so far this postseason (Toronto, Denver). 

Play: Nets (-1)

Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers (-8, 210)

Game 5: 76ers lead 3-1

Scottie Barnes and Toronto was able to extend its series for one more game, but now the status of Fred VanVleet is in question for the shorthanded Raptors. If VanVleet can go it would be the healthiest Toronto has been in this series, and they are coming off two brilliant defensive performances at home. In the two games north of the border Philadelphia averaged just 106.7 points per 100 possessions, and 89.5 per 100 plays in transition. Tyrese Maxey averaged just 15.0 points per game on 40.0% shooting from the floor compared to the 30.5 per game on 68.8% shooting from the floor at home. Perhaps a shift to the friendly confines of home will bring out the role players to a greater degree for the 76ers. If that happens it’s hard to see how the Raptors can extend this series one more game and bring it back home. The offense for Toronto has been its biggest issue and it has shown little life in this series other than the Game 1 loss. They have averaged just 111.7 points per 100 possessions for the series and in the two home games their offense was worse (108.2) than it was on the road in Games 1 and 2 (115.6). Perhaps with Barnes back and an appearance from VanVleet this team can even out its offensive production while maintaining the defensive intensity it found at home. From a number standpoint it would be Toronto or pass here. This line is higher than where Game 2 closed, but the line was understandable given the questionable status of both Gary Trent Jr. and Scottie Barnes. Now, it is only VanVleet on the injury report but the market says make it a half-point higher. The total, like many games, is correlated to the side. If Philadelphia is covering their offense is finding the form it did in the first two games and rolling, but if Toronto is staying in this number expect another slow moving rock fight.

Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks (-3.5, 211.5)

Game 5: Series tied 2-2

The market’s perception of Utah has been simply stunning, and it is an angle I have been playing against consistently. On Saturday, despite the return of Luka Doncic, the betting line closed a half-point higher than the open. Today, the market opened at the appropriate 3.5 but moved to 2.5 before coming back to -3 at most shops. Is Utah really power rated higher than Dallas with Luka Doncic? They shouldn’t be, but the market is saying that is the case when moving this line, the way that it did. Doncic returning did lead to a more disjointed effort from Dallas than the previous two games, but with him on the floor the Mavericks can still exploit the Jazz perimeter defense for open 3-point attempts. Simply put, this game is all about the number for me. As someone who rates Dallas as the better team there is real line value in laying 2.5 or even 3 when homecourt has been bumped up to as high as 3.5 in this postseason. With a game under his belt Doncic should do a much better job of getting his teammates involved – Dallas only had 15 assists on 33 made shots on Saturday – and the Mavericks should take a 3-2 series lead when tonight is through.

Play: Mavericks (-3)

Best Bet Summary

Nets (-1)

Mavericks (-3)

Season Record: 90-68-2

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