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NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 4/25


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Monday, April 25th

*Lines are opening numbers

Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets (-2.5, 225)

Game 4: Celtics lead 3-0

It seems the Brooklyn Nets are all but done in this series. Kevin Durant has averaged 22.0 points on 38.5% shooting from the floor and 5.7 turnovers per game thanks to Boston’s smothering defense, and Kyrie Irving has scored 26 total points in the last two games. The Celtics have contained the Nets’ biggest threats and are now just a victory away from a first round sweep. Boston’s performance warrants an adjustment on their power rating, but is this the point where that adjustment is too much and there is now value on Brooklyn? When the series began the difference between these two was miniscule, with the difference between these being just homecourt advantage. However, the line for Game 4 has seen the biggest adjustment in the series with this down to -1 at most shops. This would mean a two-point line for Boston on a neutral and a five-point spread for a Game 5 back at TD Garden which is obviously a full point higher than the closing line for Game 1 which the Celtics failed to cover. It might be ugly, but I am going to bite on the line value with the Nets here. The performances of their stars have been atrocious, and much of that is due to the performance of Boston’s defense, but Brooklyn has done some things well in this series. The Nets have the best offensive rating in transition in the postseason according to Cleaning The Glass, averaging 164.3 per 100 plays in transition overall and 221.1 off live rebounds. They are also generating good looks from beyond the arc, averaging 16.0 uncontested looks per game while shooting 42.4% overall in non-garbage time. There are also worse situations than a team facing elimination at home which is 2-0 SU and ATS so far this postseason (Toronto, Denver). 

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