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NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 4/18


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Monday, April 18th

*Lines are opening numbers

Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers (-6.5, 220.5)

Game 2: 76ers lead 1-0

Everything that could go wrong did for Toronto on Saturday, and now they’re in it deep tonight against Philadelphia for Game 2. Scottie Barnes, Gary Trent Jr. and Thaddeus Young are all doubtful due to various injuries for the Raptors, a team that came into this series with a short rotation already. Those injuries for Toronto are why the betting line here is up to 7.5 and it will likely climb given the public sentiment regarding the Raptors chances following a blowout. However, there are some slivers of hope for Toronto, even after a loss like that. Toronto still averaged 1.262 points per possession in non-garbage time minutes and 1.117 in the halfcourt, turned it over only eight times and shot 12-of-30 from beyond the arc. Philadelphia also had outlier performance in transition, starting 15.7% of their possessions with a transition play and averaging 1.909 points per play, two figures which are out of line with the 76ers team we saw in the regular season. The pointspread adjustment is apt given the missing pieces for the Raptors today, but be careful in jumping ship on Toronto or running to lay a number that has been adjusted accurately. It’s never as bad as it looks after one game in a playoff series. The total is an interesting angle here as well. The first game closed 215.5 and went well over, but it was due to both teams putting together wildly efficient offensive performances. Oddsmakers opened this total today as high as 220.5 but it’s come down to 217.5 at most shops and I completely agree. Game 1 had well under 100 possessions and that is how this series is going to play. If we get the expected dip in efficiency this game is going to look much like the slog of a series we expected before it started. There’s a few 218s still on the market and that’s still worth playing under the total.

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