NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 3/7


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Monday, March 7th

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Atlanta Hawks (-8, 227.5) at Detroit Pistons

Detroit continued its winning ways on Friday night with an outright win over Indiana as an underdog to improve to 5-2 SU/7-0 ATS over the last seven games. Over the course of this winning streak the Pistons have been outscored by only 0.7 points every 100 possessions because of an offense that has averaged 113.5 points per 100 possessions. Cade Cunningham and Saddiq Bey have been playing great basketball, and neither are on the injury report tonight. Atlanta comes in 5-2 SU/4-3 ATS record over its last seven games, but the defense has been in its usual inconsistent form. The Hawks have allowed 114.8 points per 100 possessions to those seven opponents, and its hard to make a case for this team laying this many points in any road situation, let alone one in which the opponent is playing basketball at the level of Detroit. The Pistons are playing inspired basketball, and during this run they have caught 7.9 points per game on the betting line. Clearly the market has not budged on its perception of Detroit, so I won’t budge on my stance of this team being a follow until it falls apart.

Play: Pistons (+ 7.5)

Best Games

Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks (-1.5, 217.5)

Utah got back to its winning ways yesterday with a 116-103 win over Oklahoma City, but the failed cover brings this team to 1-5 ATS in its last six games. Mike Conley rested yesterday, so bettors should expect him back on the floor for the Jazz tonight, but the injury report is filled with some key names for Dallas. Jalen Brunson and Maxi Kleber are questionable with injury, and Luka Doncic is on the report but expected to play. The market has a clear respect for Utah when its starting five are fully healthy and that is represented by this line which is indicating the Jazz are the better team with a line under the homecourt advantage threshold. Should Brunson and Kleber play the Mavericks would be in position to grab this game against Utah. With Brunson, Doncic and Spencer Dinwiddie available the Mavericks would have a plethora of ball-handlers with the ability to attack off the bounce that could bother a team like the Jazz. Doncic is good enough from mid-range that he can exploit an area of the floor which Utah allows opponents to operate from. No official play for the column, but if Brunson and Kleber play I will be on the Mavericks tonight.

Chicago Bulls at Philadelphia 76ers (-6.5, 229)

The betting market has pushed this line up to -7.5 at almost every shop this morning, and for good reason. Chicago is 0-4 SU and ATS in its last four games, has allowed 118.4 points per 100 possessions and as a result their -7.4 net rating is sixth-worst over that stretch. To make matters worse, Nikola Vucevic is questionable to play which takes a massive bite out of their offensive capabilities. Vucevic is not a lockdown defender by any means either, but if he cannot play the Bulls will charge Tristan Thompson or Tony Bradley with the task of defending Embiid. It’s a matchup nightmare across the board. Should Vucevic play tonight it would give the Bulls some relief in that he can help them match scoring blows, but I would not expect this to be a game in which the 76ers are limited on the offensive end of the floor. 

Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs (-3, 234)

Los Angeles, or should I say LeBron James, is coming off an incredible effort against Golden State on Saturday that snapped an 0-4 SU slide. However, the Lakers needed 56 points from James to make that happen. What is the follow up like against San Antonio? Granted, the Spurs do not come into this game in pristine form. San Antonio is 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS in its last four games and its defense has allowed 116.6 points per 100 possessions to its last six opponents. It’s not exactly the best team to lay points with, but the opportunity to catch the Lakers after that herculean performance on Saturday is a good one. The Spurs have still been an adequate offensive team with the ability to score against lackluster defensive opponents which is what the Lakers are. Los Angeles has allowed 115.4 points per 100 possessions since returning from the break which is something San Antonio can take advantage of is Dejounte Murray, Devin Vassell and Keita Bates-Diop can exploit should they play.

The Others

New York Knicks at Sacramento Kings (-3.5, 229.5)

New York put forth its best effort in over a month last night, blowing out the Los Angeles Clippers and covering its second consecutive game. It could be that the Knicks are finding a solid form right now, but its hard to consistently count on a team that is now 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games. New York is also still dealing with a bevy of injuries. Taj Gibson, Nerlens Noel, Quentin Grimes and Obi Toppin are either questionable or out for this game against Sacramento. The Kings are quietly finding some consistency with this new lineup on the floor and enter this game 4-1 ATS in their last five. However, they were underdogs in four of those five contests, and laying a number against a similarly power rated team is a much larger task. If the Knicks roll with a short-handed frontcourt again tonight it would give a solid advantage to the home team, but not enough for me to get involved.

Houston Rockets at Miami Heat (-15.5, 226)

Houston snapped an 0-12 SU slide with a win over Memphis last night as a 10.5-point underdog. The Rockets are 4-4 ATS in their last eight games to give them credit, and tonight they’re catching a wildly inflated number against Miami. Can the Heat cover a number like this? Absolutely. Will they put forth the effort needed to do so for 48 minutes? I would assume not. This is the start of a six-game homestand for Miami which includes games against Phoenix, Cleveland and Minnesota all within the next six days. If the Heat, who are missing Kyle Lowry and have Jimmy Butler who has been dealing with a toe injury most of the season, want to get rest for these guys this would be the game to call off the dogs early.

Portland Trail Blazers at Minnesota Timberwolves (-15, 235)

This is a somewhat simple handicap. Portland has shown no life in the game since the All-Star break, but the tax bettors are paying to bet against them continues to increase. The Trail Blazers are 0-4 SU and ATS in the last four games with a -26.7 net rating. They have caught an average of 10.5 points per game, but failed to cover by an average of 18.7 points per game. There is nothing to like about this team other than the growing spreads they face. Minnesota closed as a 13-point favorite over the weekend and won by 14 and today they open as 15-point favorites. The market is adjusting, but I’ll pass on sweating out the Portland Trail Blazers. I have enough health issues to deal with.

Best Bets Summary

Pistons (+ 7.5)

Season Record: 69-57-1

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