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NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 3/21


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Monday, March 21st

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

*New Orleans Pelicans at Charlotte Hornets (-6, 234)

The initial move here on the overnight line was toward Charlotte and that was somewhat surprising given how high this number was to begin with. Yes, the Hornets have been fantastic in March, posting a 6-2 SU and ATS record with a 4-0 SU and ATS streak intact coming into tonight. They also lead the league in offensive efficiency this month, averaging 124.7 points per 100 possessions, which has led to the team outscoring opponents by 8.9 points per 100 possessions over the course of these eight games. All of these figures make Charlotte a tempting proposition tonight, especially once you factor in New Orleans coming in on the second leg of a back-to-back and still not having Brandon Ingram – and potentially Devonté Graham – on the floor. However, the Pelicans are the side I’m looking to back at this number. From just a power rating perspective this number is too strong. A line of -6 tells us Charlotte would be favored by two in New Orleans, a line that does not jive with my ratings that have these two teams very similar to one another. The Pelicans also have quite the advantage up front with Jaxson Hayes and Jonas Valanciunas. New Orleans is one of the best rebounding teams in the league with this frontcourt duo, and even during this run Charlotte is grabbing only 49.3% of available rebounds and 70.7% on the defensive glass. The Hornets are going to have trouble limiting this team’s production on the offensive glass, one of their strengths, and they will have difficulty in transition against the league’s best transition defense. Give me the points here with the road team.

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