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NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 3/14


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Monday, March 14th

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Milwaukee Bucks (-1.5, 234.5) at Utah Jazz

Milwaukee should not be laying points on the road against Utah, but Rudy Gobert is questionable to play with a foot injury that caused him to miss the last game for the Jazz so the market is somewhat skewed here. The Bucks are coming off a loss at Golden State in which their perimeter defense was cooked to the tune of an 18-of-43 night by the Warriors. Milwaukee’s penchant for allowing 3-point attempts has been burning them since the beginning of the calendar year, as opponents have shot 37.2% from deep against them while taking 40.0% of their attempts from that area of the floor. That is not an area to be struggling in defensively when facing a team like Utah which leads the league in 3-point frequency (43.4%) and is sixth shooting (36.9%). Gobert told the media this morning that he would play today and that his foot was feeling better, so on that news I will be taking the 1.5 with Utah tonight.

Play: Jazz (+ 1.5)

Best Games

Denver Nuggets at *Philadelphia 76ers (-5, 221.5)

Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid meet for the first time since 2019 in what some would call a showdown for the MVP award. The overnight line had Philadelphia laying five, but the 76ers had to overcome the Magic in overtime on Sunday which meant 44 minutes for James Harden who has already rested in situations like this. Harden is questionable at best, which is why we’ve seen this dip in the line to -2 at almost every shop. The luster has certainly worn off the new dynamic duo, and the weaknesses for this 76ers team have started to appear over the course of the last five games. Philadelphia is 3-2 SU/1-4 ATS and allowing 115.5 points per 100 possessions, which is a very subpar defensive rating. Denver has hit its own lull though, coming into this game on an 0-4 ATS slide, and off back-to-back losses to Toronto and Golden State. However, some of this can be attributed to fatigue, as the Nuggets just finished a stretch that saw them play five games in seven nights. It’s hard to get a read on a contest like this given the potential absence of Harden looming, as well as the questionable status of Aaron Gordon for Denver. It’s easy to stay away from a betting perspective until the personnel situation clears up, but this is a must watch game tonight without a doubt.

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