NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 2/7

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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Monday, February 7th

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Toronto Raptors at Charlotte Hornets (PK, 225.5)

The sky seems to be falling for the Charlotte Hornets. On Saturday they were handed an 18-point loss to the Heat which extended their losing streak to 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS, and the team is 2-6 SU and ATS in its last eight games. In the loss to Miami rookie James Bouknight tried to confront head coach James Borrego on the sideline but was taken to the locker room, and LaMelo Ball was essentially benched, limited to just six minutes in the second half. Charlotte’s high-flying offense has been stymied the last four contests, putting up just 95.8 points per 100 possessions while shooting 38.6% from the floor and 28.8% from distance. It seems like a terrible time to welcome in a red-hot Toronto team that is on a 5-0 SU and ATS run. The Raptors’ defense is back to playing at an elite level, limiting their last five opponents to 107.9 points per 100 possessions and 33.5% from 3-point range. Given the situation for Charlotte it’s not surprising to see the market head in Toronto’s direction here, but this is going to be just the second time this season the Raptors close as a road favorite. These two teams just met on Jan. 25 and Toronto wiped the floor with Charlotte in a 125-113 victory, putting up 1.337 points per possession in non-garbage time while shooting 16-of-30 from deep. Usually I am all for buying on bad news, but given the way the team has been playing lately I would have to see it to believe it buy in on Charlotte this low.

Miami Heat (-3.5, 214) at Washington Wizards

Kyle Lowry returned to the fold on Friday and Miami subsequently won and covered its next two games against San Antonio and Charlotte. Tonight, the injury report is noisy with Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro considered questionable to play, but that has not stopped this number from jumping to 2.5 points from the overnight to -6 at most shops. Butler has been listed as questionable with this nagging toe injury for a while now, but with the Heat not scheduled to play again until Thursday a night off tonight could go a long way. The same could be said for Herro who was not on the injury report against Charlotte over the weekend. Washington will be down two major pieces regardless, as Bradley Beal and Daniel Gafford are already ruled out with injury. The Wizards followed up their win and cover in Philadelphia with a 15-point loss at home to the Suns to fall to 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games. On the court, it’s an intriguing matchup that has worked for Washington from a betting perspective, as the Wizards are 1-2 SU but 2-1 ATS in this series this season. Washington takes over a third of its attempts at the rim as an offense, and while Miami ranks eighth in opponent rim frequency (29.7%) they allow 65.3% on those attempts which is below average. Too much noise on the injury front to wager on it this early, but don’t discount the Wizards here if the number continues to inflate.

Phoenix Suns (-6.5, 228) at *Chicago Bulls

Not surprisingly, the injury report holds the key for potential Bulls bettors tonight. Zach LaVine and Coby White both missed the 119-108 loss to Philadelphia on Sunday due to injury, and one would assume playing in the second leg of a back-to-back would not help with their availability. If those two cannot play the Bulls are in a brutal spot. DeMar DeRozan had to play 41 minutes yesterday, and their rotation is effectively just eight guys without LaVine and White available. Phoenix bounced back from its loss in Atlanta to start this road trip with a win and cover in Washington over the weekend and is more than capable of taking advantage of the Bulls’ issues. Since Jan. 7 Chicago has been one of the worst defensive teams in the league, allowing 119.4 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes. As a result, the team is 8-10 SU/9-9 ATS and the Over is 13-4-1 in those contests. Chris Paul and Devin Booker should have no problem picking apart this defense, but if LaVine and White are available this offense becomes much more formidable and the Bulls become more palatable as an underdog.

Golden State Warriors (-12, 212.5) at Oklahoma City Thunder

When Shai Gilgeous-Alexander went down with an ankle injury I figured Oklahoma City would be cooked, but that is hardly the case. The Thunder are 3-1 SU and ATS in the four games since he was shelved and their defense has been as effective a ever. However, their offense put up 1.043 points per possession or fewer in three of the four games and that will likely persist without Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor, especially in a contest with a defensive team like Golden State. The Warriors have caught fire and ride an 8-0 SU/4-4 ATS winning streak into this meeting with the Thunder. Their offense has found its footing, averaging 119.9 points per 100 possessions, and Steph Curry has quietly found his stroke and is shooting 48.8% from deep over the last four games. It looks like a poor situation for Oklahoma City and making matters worse is the injury report. Luguentz Dort is questionable to play and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl is done for the foreseeable future. The side is holding steady here, but the total is down to 211.5 in some shops given the likely struggles of the Thunder offense.

New York Knicks at Utah Jazz (-7.5, 213.5)

The west coast trip did not get off to a great start for New York. On Saturday they blew a 21-point lead and lost in overtime to the Los Angeles Lakers to fall to 1-5 SU/2-4 ATS in the last six games. The market is clearly down on the Knicks, as the Jazz are laying 7.5 despite not having Rudy Gobert in the lineup while listing Jordan Clarkson and Rudy Gay as questionable to play. Utah is not in great form either. Its win over Brooklyn, which sat James Harden, snapped a four-game stretch without a cover and the team is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games. In the six games since losing Gobert to injury they are giving up 115.5 points per 100 possessions on defense as well. This total has jumped up to 220.5 which is massive change from the overnight, but makes sense given the struggles of the Jazz defense along with their persistent ability to score. 

Best Bets Summary

None

Season Record: 60-51-1

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