NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 2/28


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Monday, February 28th

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Charlotte Hornets @ Milwaukee Bucks (-10, 241)

The Charlotte Hornets have been a thorn in the paw of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Milwaukee Bucks this season. Charlotte is 2-1 SU/3-0 ATS in the three regular season contests the two clubs have played, outscoring Milwaukee by 2.9 points per 100 possessions. The shocking, and likely unsustainable, aspect of this series so far is the Bucks 107.4 offensive rating against one of the worst defensive teams in the league. However, can Milwaukee be trusted? Since Jan. 1 the Bucks are 12-12 SU/9-15 ATS with a + 2.2 net rating. On Saturday they lost outright to Kyrie Irving and the Brooklyn Nets in another lackluster defensive performance. Their style of defensive play is working against them yet again along the perimeter. Over the course of these 24 games opponents are shooting 36.1% on 39.5 3-point attempts per game, and it has led to these results. Charlotte seems to have broken free of its offensive slump as well, averaging 119.5 points per 100 possessions while shooting 39.4% from deep. The Hornets lost at the gun to Detroit last night, but they match up well enough here that I am willing to take 10 points with the road team.

Play: Hornets (+ 10.5)

Minnesota Timberwolves (-1, 222.5) @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Darius Garland and Caris LeVert remain sidelined due to injury, which means Cleveland’s offense will likely continue to flounder. In the two games since the break, both of which have been played without either guard, the Cavaliers have averaged 103.2 points per 100 possessions, shot 41.3% from the floor and 33.3% on 3-point attempts. J.B. Bickerstaff has been struggling to find an answer at point guard with Garland out, starting Rajon Rondo in the loss to Detroit, and Brandon Goodwin in the loss to Washington. The results have been similar, but Goodwin is by far the better option and should start considering Rondo is out with injury as well. Minnesota was steamrolled by Philadelphia on Friday, but the 76ers are a legit title contender who caught the Timberwolves on the second leg of a back-to-back after a gritty win over Memphis. They deserve to be favored on the road here and would not fault anyone who would lay -3 or better.  Instead, I will be looking for a quick start from Minnesota and play the first half instead.

Play: Timberwolves 1H (-1.5)

Best Games

Chicago Bulls @ Miami Heat (-3, 224.5)

A meeting between the two teams in contention for the top seed in the Eastern Conference obviously carries a ton of weight. Miami has won the first two of the series, one which was in dominant fashion give the Heat a + 14.0 net rating against the Bulls this season. Kyle Lowry will not be available due to personal reasons, but Miami has been just fine without him on the floor. In those possessions they are + 4.5 with an offense that is putting up 114.3 points per 100 possessions. The Heat still have the defensive personnel to contain the Bulls with Jimmy Butler, PJ Tucker and Bam Adebayo, and after being held to 1.048 points per possession by Memphis on Saturday it wouldn’t be a shock for the Bulls to put up another offensive clunker tonight. The betting market had pushed this up to -4 which is the proper number, even without Lowry on the floor.

Toronto Raptors (-2, 225.5) @ Brooklyn Nets

There will be no Kyrie Irving or Kevin Durant for Brooklyn tonight, but OG Anunoby is out and Fred VanVleet is questionable for Toronto, making this a messy handicap pre-flop. VanVleet has looked out of sorts since returning from the break, going 11-of-34 from the floor and 7-of-21 from deep in two games, and it would not be a shock to see him miss tonight because of that. Brooklyn has been terrible at home since losing Harden, going 1-5 SU and ATS with a 105.3 offensive rating due to a lack of offensive personnel, and that would likely continue against a team that has allowed just 110.7 points per 100 possessions since New Year’s Eve. Overall, the injury issues for the Raptors are a bit much to support them on the road here, but the market does not seem to mind as they are up to -4.5 at a few shops.

The Others

Sacramento Kings (-4.5, 222.5) @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Luguentz Dort, Josh Giddey and four others are out for Oklahoma City today which ultimately turns me off the Thunder here. Sacramento’s new additions have not done much toward winning games for the Kings, as they enter tonight 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS in their last four games. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to play, so Oklahoma City will be live in a situation they have been successful in all season long, as the team is 16-9-2 ATS when catching points at home this season.

San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies (-8, 233.5)

Memphis corrected course on Saturday, snapping an 0-2 SU and ATS slide with a win and cover in Chicago. They are laying a big number here, but should they be? San Antonio is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight games and was very competitive against Miami on Saturday despite missing three starters, covering inn a 133-129 loss in South Beach. Today, Doug McDermott is questionable but Jakob Poeltl and Dejounte Murray should be back on the court giving San Antonio a much needed boost. Shockingly, the Spurs have been poor in the role of home underdog this season, going 5-11 ATS.

Indiana Pacers @ Orlando Magic (-1.5, 229.5)

Do the high-scoring affairs continue for Indiana tonight against the anemic Orlando offense? Over the course of the last 26 games for the Pacers the total is 19-7 to the Over. That trend cashed again last night when Indiana dropped 129 points in a win over Boston. The Magic have been a poor team at home as well, going 7-19-1 ATS in O-Town.

Best Bets Summary

Hornets (+ 10.5)

Timberwolves 1H (-1.5)

Season Record: 64-55-1

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