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NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 2/14


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Monday, February 14th

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Detroit Pistons @ Washington Wizards (-4.5, 218.5)

We’ve seen the new version of Washington for two contests now, and the consistent aspect of their game has been an extremely subpar defense. Their two opponents (Brooklyn, Sacramento) have averaged 1.23 points per possession and the Wizards have a -6.3 net rating and an 0-2 ATS record in those affairs as a result. That net rating is somewhat deceiving due to a poor showing against Sacramento on Saturday, but the poor defense is something that will persist for Washington going forward. The degree of poor play will be something to monitor and bettors will get an answer to that tonight when the Wizards host the Pistons. Detroit got Cade Cunningham back in the lineup on Friday night, but he only played 21 minutes and it was blown out 141-119 by Charlotte. The Pistons 0-7 SU/1-6 ATS in their last seven games with a -17.7 net rating which is, by far, the worst in the NBA over that stretch. Cunningham makes Detroit better in his time on the floor, but this regression on defense since the start of February is extreme. Given the level of play from the Pistons recently, the apparent minutes restriction of Cunningham and the fact that Washington is playing the fourth game of a four-game homestand it makes sense that the Wizards would be favored despite a 2-15-1 ATS record over the last 18 games. Given how poor Detroit has been its hard to make the case for the underdog here but given the poor defense Washington has put on the floor recently this is not a number I would like to lay either.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ New York Knicks (-9.5, 206.5)

Will it be a good thing or a bad thing that New York is back at home after a disastrous west coast road trip? The Knickerbockers went 1-4 SU and ATS in the five games on the opposite coast, blowing late second half leads in three of four losses. In those contests New York had a -9.1 second half net rating, and a -30.7 net rating in the fourth quarters. One might believe that a home in the friendly confines of the Mecca against the short-handed Thunder might be just what the doctor ordered, but I am not entirely sure. Is New York 9.5 points better than anybody right now? Oklahoma City continues to get sold short by the market, and the team is 6-2 ATS in the eight games since losing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to injury. The Knicks are dealing with their own injury issues as well. RJ Barrett missed the last two games of the road trip and is out tonight with an ankle sprain, and Mitchell Robinson, Nerlens Noel and Cam Reddish are all questionable to play. Robinson’s absence would be impactful, as Oklahoma City is 17th in opponent offensive rebounding rate (26.2%) and has had trouble keeping opponents off the glass. The line here has moved toward the Thunder and that is understandable given the injury picture and recent play of New York. If Robinson is active I would expect a bump in the line for the Knicks as well, but this is not a team worth swallowing that many points with, no matter the opponent.

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