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NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 11/8


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report Recap for November 5th – 7th

The story of the weekend must be the Cleveland Cavaliers who took games from Toronto and New York to improve to 7-4 on the season. Cleveland is now 8-3 ATS and has eight outright wins as an underdog. The Cavaliers have a great mix of youth that is clearly paying off early in the season, and while I have my reservations about the long-term stability of this play, clearly oddsmakers need to adjust their power rating of Cleveland in the meantime.

It is also worth pointing out that there is another team that is catching fire, and this one might have some legitimacy to it. After a win on Sunday night over Charlotte the Los Angeles Clippers are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games and they have climbed their way back into the top eight of the Western Conference. As of Monday, they are giving up just 101.3 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes, the second-best defensive rating in the league according to Cleaning The Glass. The offense is still a work in progress, but Serge Ibaka made his season debut last night and Marcus Morris is recovering from a knee injury. With better health expect this offense to grow as the season goes along. There were many leaving the Clippers for dead after the first five games, but its clear this team has a lot to work with. 

Market Report for Monday, November 8th

We have a fantastic card today and an awful Monday Night Football matchup. What a perfect night for hoops!

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

*New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers (-4.5, 210)

New York is finally starting to atone for their sins. The Knicks are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four games and their cover slump extends one more contest to 1-4 ATS in their last five. They have allowed 115.1 points per 100 possessions over these five games that they have failed to cover and much of it stems from a perimeter defense that has allowed opponents to shoot 39.2% over that stretch. Some might chalk it up to hot shooting and call it a night, but there is more to it than that. Remember that whole thing about wide-open 3-point attempts I kept harping on when it came to New York’s defense? Well, it is catching up with them. This season the Knicks have allowed the highest rate of wide-open 3-point attempts this season (24.1%), but the difference is that this season opponents are shooting 41.5% on those attempts as opposed to 34.7% last season. On top of that, Kemba Walker is questionable at best for tonight after missing the loss to Cleveland on Sunday. Philadelphia has not lost since the trip to Madison Square Garden on Oct. 26, bringing into this contest a 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS record over the last six games. The market has stood pat on this opener, and I am curious where this goes. New York is a team that I believed to be out above its skis when it started 5-1 and that has proven to be somewhat true lately. Against a 76ers team that is now leading the league in 3-point shooting (40.1%) it seems like that slide for the Knicks could continue. However, Matisse Thybulle and Tobias Harris are still out due to COVID protocol and Danny Green is questionable to play tonight. If the market pushes this down to 3.5 it will be worth it to get involved, but until then the personnel missing for Philadelphia takes me off the home side.

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