NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 11/8


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report Recap for November 5th – 7th

The story of the weekend must be the Cleveland Cavaliers who took games from Toronto and New York to improve to 7-4 on the season. Cleveland is now 8-3 ATS and has eight outright wins as an underdog. The Cavaliers have a great mix of youth that is clearly paying off early in the season, and while I have my reservations about the long-term stability of this play, clearly oddsmakers need to adjust their power rating of Cleveland in the meantime.

It is also worth pointing out that there is another team that is catching fire, and this one might have some legitimacy to it. After a win on Sunday night over Charlotte the Los Angeles Clippers are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games and they have climbed their way back into the top eight of the Western Conference. As of Monday, they are giving up just 101.3 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes, the second-best defensive rating in the league according to Cleaning The Glass. The offense is still a work in progress, but Serge Ibaka made his season debut last night and Marcus Morris is recovering from a knee injury. With better health expect this offense to grow as the season goes along. There were many leaving the Clippers for dead after the first five games, but its clear this team has a lot to work with. 

Market Report for Monday, November 8th

We have a fantastic card today and an awful Monday Night Football matchup. What a perfect night for hoops!

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

*New York Knicks at Philadelphia 76ers (-4.5, 210)

New York is finally starting to atone for their sins. The Knicks are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four games and their cover slump extends one more contest to 1-4 ATS in their last five. They have allowed 115.1 points per 100 possessions over these five games that they have failed to cover and much of it stems from a perimeter defense that has allowed opponents to shoot 39.2% over that stretch. Some might chalk it up to hot shooting and call it a night, but there is more to it than that. Remember that whole thing about wide-open 3-point attempts I kept harping on when it came to New York’s defense? Well, it is catching up with them. This season the Knicks have allowed the highest rate of wide-open 3-point attempts this season (24.1%), but the difference is that this season opponents are shooting 41.5% on those attempts as opposed to 34.7% last season. On top of that, Kemba Walker is questionable at best for tonight after missing the loss to Cleveland on Sunday. Philadelphia has not lost since the trip to Madison Square Garden on Oct. 26, bringing into this contest a 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS record over the last six games. The market has stood pat on this opener, and I am curious where this goes. New York is a team that I believed to be out above its skis when it started 5-1 and that has proven to be somewhat true lately. Against a 76ers team that is now leading the league in 3-point shooting (40.1%) it seems like that slide for the Knicks could continue. However, Matisse Thybulle and Tobias Harris are still out due to COVID protocol and Danny Green is questionable to play tonight. If the market pushes this down to 3.5 it will be worth it to get involved, but until then the personnel missing for Philadelphia takes me off the home side.

*Brooklyn Nets at Chicago Bulls (-1.5, 215)

Brooklyn might not be covering numbers at a high rate, but it is winning, and they head into Monday with a 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS record over its last five games and six wins in its last seven. Over this winning streak the Nets are averaging 111.1 points per 100 possessions with a + 11.7 net rating, and Kevin Durant is leading the way with 27.4 points, 7.2 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game on 60.2% shooting from the floor. They bring that winning streak to Chicago where the Bulls are looking to snap a 0-2 SU and ATS slide after consecutive losses to Philadelphia. Chicago is starting to feel the effects of not having both Patrick Willliams and Coby White, as their offense put up just 105.2 points per 100 possessions in the losses to the 76ers and their bench combined to score 40 points. Brooklyn is on the second leg of a back-to-back, but both Durant and James Harden played in both legs of their first back-to-back two weeks ago, so there is no reason to assume they will not play tonight. I will be waiting for the first injury report as a precaution, but should neither Durant or Harden be listed consider me on the Brooklyn side tonight.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies (-5.5, 219.5)

After a great 3-1 start to the season the Timberwolves are stuck in an 0-4 SU and ATS tailspin they cannot seem to break out of. Minnesota has a -31.9 net rating in the second half of this four-game slide. Opponents have scored 1.209 points per possession in these second halves and the Timberwolves are managing just 0.891 on offense themselves. In the fourth quarter of these games that net rating plummets to -43.1! What makes it more shocking is that the team has a + 7.3 net rating in the first half of these games and has led at halftime in three of the four. It has not helped that D’Angelo Russell missed both losses to the Los Angeles Clippers, and he is questionable to play tonight against Memphis. Should Russell be available it might be the time to play against Memphis. The Grizzlies’ defense continues to be a problem and that was exposed on Friday night when the Wizards put up 1.232 points per possession in their win at home. They are still 30th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency at 115.3 and 25th in net rating (-6.0), according to Cleaning The Glass. Minnesota was catching 6.5 in Milwaukee just over a week ago and now the market has pushed Memphis to -6 with a total of 217.5 at most shops. As always, I am looking for buy low spots and this looks like it could be one for the visiting team.

Play: Timberwolves (+ 6)

New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks (-9.5, 211.5)

Dallas has won two straight and three of four, but the market continues to overvalue how good this team really is. Despite a 6-3 record on the season the Mavericks are just 2-6-1 ATS due to some inflated numbers supported by the betting market and there was another on the open here. As of this morning this number is down to 8.5 and it should be given what we know of Dallas at this point. The Mavericks are averaging just 105.0 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes, and even with Doncic on the floor their offensive rating is only 104.0! Their offense is built entirely along the perimeter where they take 42.3% of their attempts but shoot just 31.6% as a team. There is zero presence inside four feet, where they take just 24.9% of their attempts, and as result their offensive performances have been inconsistent. There is certainly a universe in which they exploit a Pelicans defense that is allowing opponents to shoot 38.2% from the perimeter, but until the Mavericks show an ability to put a full offensive performance together and cover these numbers I do not know how anyone would feel comfortable laying these numbers with Dallas.

Miami Heat (-1.5, 208.5) at Denver Nuggets

After a 95-94 win over Houston on Saturday the Nuggets fell to 3-6 ATS on the season, but today find themselves in an unfamiliar role: home underdog. It is for good reason though, as Michael Porter Jr. left that game against the Rockets with a back injury and has already been ruled for this meeting. Denver continues to show little life on the offensive end of the floor, and their 23rd-ranked offense (103.7 per 100 possessions) must now get it done against the 4th-best defense in the league (102.6 allowed per 100 possessions). Miami has been brilliant in forcing opponents into tough perimeter shots all season. They rank 30th in opponent frequency of attempts from deep (45.6%), but 8th in opponent shooting (32.5%) and second in rate of tightly contested 3-point attempts. For a Nuggets team that is missing one of its best shooters that is an absolute nightmare. It is why we have seen this total crash to 206 in most shops. Denver is a league-leading 8-1 to the Under this season due to its underwhelming offense and the matchup suggests that will continue.

Atlanta Hawks at *Golden State Warriors (-2.5, 223)

Golden State comes in on the second leg of a back-to-back with a 4-0 SU and ATS streak in its last four games, and they face an Atlanta team that is 0-3 SU and ATS in its last three games with a defense that is reeling. The Hawks are 25th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency this season (110.7) over this losing streak opponents have averaged 116.8 points per 100 possessions. Their rim defense continues to let them down, as they have allowed opponents to shoot 68.7% within four feet, something that does not bode well in a matchup against a Warriors team that takes 34.8% of its attempts at the rim and shoots 66.8% on those shots. The market bet this up from -2.5 to -3.5 and that is absolutely the right move. Golden State was -6 at home against Charlotte on Wednesday night, a team power rated similarly to Atlanta, and should be much closer to 4.5 in this spot against the Hawks. The total has dropped two points and rightfully so given the Warriors’ ability on defense and their 7-2 record to the Under.

Phoenix Suns (-3, 221.5) at *Sacramento Kings

For the first time this season the Phoenix Suns are starting to show some life. They enter Monday night with a 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS winning streak in which they outscored their opponents by8.2 points per 100 possessions. This streak three nights after the Suns fell to this Kings team at home, and there will likely be revenge on the mind here for Phoenix. In that contest the Suns were up by eight points at halftime, but a 29-15 third quarter and 16 turnovers cost them the victory. Phoenix’s defense has been much better during this win streak, allowing just 101.9 points per 100 possessions. That will come in handy against Sacramento which has put up 114.3 points per 100 possessions in its last four games in which it has a 3-1 ATS record. Keep in mind, there is still no Deandre Ayton tonight for Phoenix as he continues to recover from a leg injury that kept him out of the game against Atlanta.

*Charlotte Hornets at Los Angeles Lakers (-2.5, 224.5)

There are rumblings that LeBron James’ abdominal injury could be much more serious than initially thought and that is bad news for a Lakers team that is falling apart at the seams. Los Angeles was blown out over the weekend in Portland and is now 0-4 ATS in its last four games. The offense has managed just 97.8 points per 100 possessions during this four-game slide and has shown little signs of improvement. When Russell Westbrook and Anthony Davis are on the floor together without James the Lakers are outscored by 8.1 points per 100 possessions, and their defense gives up 115.3 per 100 possessions. We have finally seen the market adjust not only by opening this line at -2.5 but then driving it down to -1.5 as of this morning. Charlotte is reeling with an 0-4 SU and ATS record in its last four games and a defense that has been torched for 117.9 points per 100 possessions over that stretch. It seems like a buy low spot for Los Angeles, but this is a team that is 0-2 against the Thunder this season. Do you really want to swallow points with them?

Best Bet Summary

Timberwolves (+ 6)

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