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NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 1/17


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Monday, January 17th

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

New Orleans Pelicans @ Boston Celtics (-5.5, 216)

The betting market is all over Boston this morning as this number is up to 6.5 in few shops, but I think this matchup is much tighter than the market is giving it credit for. On one end it seems the Celtics have a distinct advantage on defense. They rank seventh in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (108.0) and their opponent comes in 25th on offense (107.4). However, the Pelicans have been much better on that end of the floor recently, putting up 111.9 points per 100 possessions in their last 16 games while posting a 9-7 ATS mark. New Orleans also has a distinct advantage on the glass. The Celtics have had a hard time keeping foes off the offensive glass, and the Pelicans happen to have the fourth-best offensive rebounding rate in the league (28.3%). Not only that, but New Orleans is very effective in transition, ranking ninth in both points added per 100 plays through transition (+ 3.1) and offensive efficiency in transition (125.6), two areas which Boston ranks 18th and 17th respectively on defense. The Pelicans do lack a true defensive piece for both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but offense has hardly been the calling card for the Celtics and Herbert Jones is a good enough defender to matchup with either wing. Boston has been slightly overvalued by the market at home this season (14-8 SU/10-12 ATS) and the role of favorite has not been kind (16-10 SU/11-15 ATS). This line is rich when I compare it to my number, so the underdog is the side for me.

Play: Pelicans (+ 6)

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