NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 11/15


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report Recap for November 13th-14th

The league’s second-longest win streak was snapped last night as Chicago took care of business against Los Angeles on Sunday night. DeMar DeRozan was incredible with 35 points on 12-of-16 shooting to go with seven rebounds and five assists. It was an impressive rebound for the Bulls who were blown out on Friday night by the Warriors. They improve to 9-4 SU and ATS (69.2%) on the season.

With the Clippers taking their first loss since Oct. 29 it is the Suns who stand alone with the longest active win streak at eight straight after they trounced the Rockets on Sunday. Phoenix has covered seven of those games and over this span has outscored opponents by 12.2 points per 100 possessions. It is worth pointing out that the best team in terms of net rating the Suns have beat during this stretch is Portland which ranks 13th (+ 1.3), but they can only play who is front of them. It will be interesting to see how the market treats them when they face a top team.

Market Report for Monday, November 15th

There are 11 games on the schedule today, so what are you doing wasting time and reading this? Get in there.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

New Orleans Pelicans at Washington Wizards (-2.5, 213.5)

After a win and cover in Orlando on Saturday the Wizards improved to 4-0 SU/3-0-1 ATS in its last four games. There is still a “smoke and mirrors” feel to this team, but the opportunity has not really presented itself to consistently play against them. Their offense during this win streak has managed just 107.2 points per 100 possessions despite facing three teams (Milwaukee, Orlando, Memphis) that rank 22nd or lower in defensive efficiency. Against elite defenses this offense is going to be a problem, but that is not New Orleans. The Pelicans are 29th in defensive efficiency in non-garbage time minutes (113.9) and 28th in net rating (-10.3) giving the Wizards another opportunity to pad the resume. Bradley Beal is out tonight as he takes time to mourn the passing of his grandmother, but do not think Washington will struggle without him. The Wizards have outscored their opponents by 6.6 points per 100 possessions with him off the court this season.

Boston Celtics (-2.5, 200) at Cleveland Cavaliers

It seemed that Boston had caught Cleveland at the right time on Saturday when it opened a 20-9 lead after the first quarter, but NBA games often span four quarters and the Celtics forgot that. The Cavaliers dominated the second half, erasing a 19-point deficit in the third quarter to win on a pair of Darius Garland free throws. Today bettors might see Boston laying 1.5 more points here, but they are in better health with Al Horford and Josh Richardson available tonight, both of whom missed the loss on Saturday. Having said that, when does the market begin to respect Cleveland? The Cavaliers are the league’s best cover team at 10-3-1 ATS on the season and they have eight outright wins in 13 games as an underdog. Not much separates these two teams either, as Boston is 11th in net rating (+ 2.6) and Cleveland is 14th (+ 1.3). I have been waiting for my opportunity to play against the Cavaliers, but the market is not giving me that opportunity. The side is up to Celtics -3 this morning, which is not surprising given the injury report, but I have seen enough from the Cavaliers to get me away from laying points against them at home.

Sacramento Kings (-4.5, 213) at Detroit Pistons

Through 13 games the Kings are the same inconsistent mess they were last season. Sacramento has followed up a 4-2 SU/5-1 ATS run with its current 0-4 SU and ATS slide that includes losses to Indiana, San Antonio and Oklahoma City. Surprisingly, it is the Kings’ offense that has let them down by averaging just 103.2 points per 100 possessions during this losing streak, and it is not a given that they figure it out against Detroit. The Pistons have limited three of their previous four opponents to 1.04 points per possession of fewer and are 3-1 ATS in those contests as a result. Since Cade Cunningham made his debut the Pistons have improved offensively as well, scoring 97.2 points per 100 possessions in the games without him to 102.2 in the eight games with him. It is not a game I am rushing to bet like the market is today, pushing the Kings up to -5 in some spots, but do not assume the Pistons are dead in the water. They are showing signs of improvement lately, even with the loss of Kelly Olynyk for six weeks.

Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks (-3, 217)

New York has some problems and the reigning Coach of the Year better figure it out because the Knicks have become one of the worst second half teams in the NBA. New York comes into Monday with the best net rating in the first half of games in the league (+ 8.9), but the team is 28th in the second half (-9.6). It is clear their offensive system of “chuck it” is good for some hot starts, but when the shots stop falling this team has no answer and their defense continues to fail. However, the betting market is finally showing an ability to budge on the Knicks, but part of that is also the red-hot nature of their opponent tonight. Indiana is 5-2 SU/6-1 ATS in November with a + 4.7 net rating. That includes a win over this Knicks team on Nov. 3 when the Pacers drilled this defense with a 16-of-41 performance from beyond the arc. The turnaround for Indiana this month has been solid, but this seems like an opportunity to buy somewhat low on New York. The Pacers are 25th in opponent 3-point shooting (37.0%) and are allowing opponents to take 32.7% of their attempts at the rim. It is a favorable situation for New York coming back home after two days off as well, so I will do the unthinkable here and support the Knickerbockers just as the market is.

Play: Knicks (-3.5) 

Orlando Magic at *Atlanta Hawks (-10.5, 214)

Atlanta snapped an 0-6 SU and ATS slide with a home win over Milwaukee last night, and tonight they can cover consecutive games for the first time this season with a win and cover over Orlando. The Magic have failed to show much fight ATS this season like their contemporaries at the bottom of the league and come into tonight with the second-worst cover rate in the league (30.8%). The Hawks have clearly been one of the most overvalued teams in the league with a 4-10 ATS record on the season, but against the lowly Magic it might be the right number. Atlanta was laying 11.5 in a home game against the Pistons earlier this season and covered that number. That was before Cade Cunningham was active, but this Orlando team is power rated similarly and could be in for a rough night. Keep an eye on the injury report here as the day goes on. With the Hawks coming in on the second leg of a back-to-back they do not have to submit an injury report until 1 p.m. local time. One shop dropped to Hawks -9.5 this morning so there might be some information on the horizon. 

*Houston Rockets at Memphis Grizzlies (-11, 221)

Should the worst defensive team in the NBA really be laying this number against any team? Memphis is finally paying for its shoddy defensive play and enters tonight on an 0-3 SU and ATS slide in which it has been outscored by -15.9 points every 100 possessions. That net rating is 0.3 points worse than the Rockets’ over their last three games (-15.6). If you take away anything from this column, should you read it daily, let it be that the Grizzlies might be one of the most fraudulent teams in the league. Their defensive rating in non-garbage time minutes is 115.0 which is 1.1 points worse than the 29th-ranked Pelicans (113.9) and it is 5.6 points worse than the Rockets (109.4). Houston might be one of the worst teams in the NBA but do not think there is this wide of a gap between them and Memphis. 

Play: Rockets (+ 11)

*Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks (-4, 209)

Denver is starting to figure out its identity and that has translated to a 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS run in which it has outscored opponents by 12.9 points per 100 possessions. The team’s defense has been one of the best in the NBA, limiting the opposition to 103.2 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes and tonight they face a Dallas team on thin ice. The Mavericks have won 2.5 more games than an average team with their efficiency differential would. Dallas’ offense has been better of late, but this number is telling us that the Mavericks are the better team and that is not the case by my numbers. The Nuggets are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, so there is the usual tax bettors are paying here to play against them, but it is surprising to see this up to -4.5 at most shops. In a season that has seen homecourt be worth about two points is Dallas really 2.5 points better than Denver on a neutral?

*Phoenix Suns (-3, 222) at Minnesota Timberwolves

As mentioned at the beginning of our column today, the Suns are now amid an 8-0 SU/7-1 ATS run in which it has outscored opponents by 12.2 points every 100 possessions. Tonight, they face the worst cover team in the league that is 1-7 SU and ATS in its last eight games with a -8.5 net rating. The Timberwolves have shown absolutely nothing on either side of the ball to warrant a play at such a low number and it is not surprising to see the betting market move toward Suns -3.5 at almost every shop. By my numbers there is value in the road team here, but the situation is not favorable with them playing their third game in four nights on the road.

Miami Heat (-9, 210.5) at *Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City finally saw its run come to an end last night in Brooklyn and now they must host another Eastern Conference elite on zero days of rest. Heading into last night the Thunder were on a five-game cover run and were 7-1 ATS in their previous eight games! Miami snapped an 0-3 SU slide with a win in Utah on Saturday and tonight they could get Jimmy Butler back from an ankle injury as he is questionable to play. Should Butler play tonight the Heat are good enough defensively to contain a Thunder offense that is averaging just 100.1 points per 100 possessions. 

Toronto Raptors at *Portland Trail Blazers (-1.5, 212.5)

After getting its first road win of the season in Houston on Friday night the Trail Blazers reverted to their old ways by getting blown out Sunday in Denver. Portland is now 1-7 SU and ATS away from home with a -11.5 net rating. Luckily, they return home tonight where they are 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS with the second-best net rating in the league (+ 13.6). It is clearly a more favorable situation for the Trail Blazers and they host a potentially short-handed Raptors team tonight, as Precious Achiuwa, Chris Boucher and Fred VanVleet are all questionable to play. It is the second leg of a back-to-back but I do not believe that Toronto is rated higher than Portland, which is something this number is telling bettors. 

*Chicago Bulls at *Los Angeles Lakers (-1, 218.5)

Coby White is expected to make his season debut tonight for Chicago which is coming off a big win over the Clippers on Sunday night to improve to 9-4 SU and ATS on the season. After the market opened this line Lakers -1 we have seen it flip to Bulls -1 at most shops which is somewhat surprising. Los Angeles has won and covered three of four games and Anthony Davis has been dominant, averaging 28.0 points and 12.0 rebounds on 51.8% shooting. Chicago does not have a real match for Davis on the defensive end of the floor and it could be another big night for him. Should this line continue to move toward the road team there will be some solid value on Los Angeles.

Best Bets Summary

Knicks (-3.5)

Rockets (+ 11)

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