NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 11/14

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 

November 14, 2022 08:54 AM

Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

All game lines via the VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Monday, November 14th

* Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Record: 15-19 | Units: -4.31 | ROI: -13.45%

Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic (-1, 221)

LaMelo Ball made his season debut on Saturday, and it is no coincidence that Charlotte put up its best individual game offensive rating in nine games (111.5). Ball is not on the injury report tonight, but he did only play 28 minutes on Saturday so there is perhaps a minor minutes restriction on him to start. The Hornets will not have Gordon Hayward once again tonight, and Dennis Smith Jr. is unlikely to play as well. Meanwhile, Paolo Banchero has not played since Nov. 7 with an ankle injury and is questionable once more tonight, but the rookie star did practice on Sunday which would likely lead toward him playing tonight. Should Banchero play tonight the Magic side is going to close higher than the number right now, and rightfully so. Banchero’s presence would add to Orlando’s size advantage, and his ability to score against lesser defenses should manifest itself tonight against the 20th ranked defense which allows 112.9 points per 100 possessions. The Magic have also quietly become an adequate defensive team themselves and come into this game 15th in defensive efficiency at 112.0 points per 100 possessions allowed. They have a defender they can sick on Ball at times in Chuma Okeke, and they are a near top ten transition defense, an area of their defensive game that becomes much more important with Ball back. I’ll play it at PK as I expect it to close higher once Banchero is officially announced as active.

Play: Magic (PK)

Best Bet Recap

Magic (PK)

The Rest

Toronto Raptors (-5, 220) at Detroit Pistons

Injuries are rampant in this game, making it hard to get a read on what this number should be. Toronto, as we know, will not have Pascal Siakam or Precious Achiuwa on the floor tonight due to various injuries, and now Fred VanVleet has been ruled out with a non-COVID illness. That means the Raptors will take the floor tonight without its top two scorers and rebounders, and yet the market has them -5 consensus. It would seemingly be the time to jump on the Pistons, but Cade Cunningham remains sidelined with that shin issue and Cory Joseph is questionable. Neither team has been in good form either. Toronto is 1-3 SU/0-4 ATS in its last four with a -9.6 net rating, and Detroit is 1-5 SU/1-4-1 ATS in its last six with a -12.7 net rating. Neither side or total has budged from the open, and I would assume this is one of the lower handled games on the board tonight.

Phoenix Suns at Miami Heat (-1.5, 217)

Phoenix wraps up a four-game road trip in Miami tonight, but with two nights off between games the team should be well rested heading into tonight. Chris Paul is questionable to play due to the heel soreness that kept him out of the last two games and Landry Shamet is out as well, meaning this team is somewhat short in the backcourt if Paul cannot go. However, the Heat are dealing with their own injury issues. Tyler Herro, who has not played for 10 days, is questionable to play tonight, as is Dewayne Dedmon. Even if Herro takes the floor tonight Miami has been proven to be overvalued by the market and enters this contest with a 3-9-1 ATS record. Still, the Heat have only allowed 111.3 points per 100 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time this season, and they could bog down a Suns offense which had trouble scoring against Orlando on Friday.

*Oklahoma City Thunder at Boston Celtics (-11, 227.5)

Oklahoma City is playing on the second leg of a back-to-back today, but they get a bit more rest time than usual as their tip-off against New York on Sunday was 12:00 p.m. ET. Still, it was a sporty affair with 280 total points and 109 possessions, and a similarly paced game is likely to take place tonight in Boston. The Celtics are 11th in transition frequency off live rebounds, and do not mind running when they have the opportunity, and the Thunder live on transition opportunities due to a below average halfcourt offense which averages just 95.3 points per 100 plays. It is likely why, once again, this total was bet up three points to 230 consensus.

Los Angeles Clippers (-5.5, 221) at Houston Rockets

This is the frontend of a road back-to-back for Los Angeles, so John Wall is getting a night off tonight. On the other side, Houston has Jalen Green listed as questionable due to shoulder soreness. Green has finally started to get comfortable in November and is averaging 26.2 points on 54.1% shooting from the floor and 41.3% from deep, so his absence would be a massive blow for the Rockets which have had trouble scoring against the Clippers this season (97.5 offensive rating in two games). The previous two games in this series have had 188 and 210 total points scored, but both game totals closed at 224.5 and 223.5 consensus. Obviously, we have seen an adjustment with the open of 221 and the subsequent movement down to 219.5 at some shops. If Green is officially ruled out, expect this number to drop even further.

Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks (-4, 225)

It turns out Milwaukee is mortal after all, as the team enters this game 1-2 SU and ATS in its last three games. This is already the third meeting between these two clubs this season, and we have two very different results in the books already. In the first meeting Giannis Antetokounmpo ran wild for 34 points and 17 rebounds on 11-of-19 shooting from the floor, and Trae Young poured in 42 points on 15-of-32 shooting in a high-scoring affair that sailed over the total. In the second meeting the Bucks’ shooting and offensive rebounding disappeared, and they failed to score 100 points in a loss. If I were to expect one of those two results tonight it would be the former. Milwaukee is eighth in offensive rebounding rate (29.9%) and Atlanta is 18th in defensive rebounding (72.4%). The Bucks generate the 12th most points per 100 missed shots (22.4) and the sixth most putback plays per 100 misses (20.8), and those are two categories in which the Hawks ranks 18th and 24th respectively on defense.

San Antonio Spurs at *Golden State Warriors (-8.5, 232)

We are thirteen games into the season and Golden State’s issues are not going away. The Warriors’ defense – which now ranks 24th in non-garbage time efficiency at 114.5 points per 100 possessions allowed – allowed 1.184 points per possession last night and 1.106 points per play in the halfcourt. It has been an absolute nightmare no matter the lineup on the floor, and the team is reliant on Stephen Curry to generate most of its offense. Throw in the fact that it is a back-to-back tonight, which likely means no Klay Thompson at minimum, and this game is hard to touch this morning. The market has pushed this number down to 7.5 which is understandable given the Warriors’ struggles and the sudden 3-0 ATS run from the Spurs in their last three games.

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