NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 11/1


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report Recap for the weekend…

It was a wild weekend in the NBA, filled with double-overtime games and bad beats on totals. On Friday night, Under bettors were bamboozled when the Kings and Pelicans game went Over the total by a half-point when 17 points were scored in the final 67 seconds. On Saturday, Under bettors were burned yet against when Boston and Washington went Over in double-overtime. There’s a reason my colleague Matt Youmans says NBA stands for ‘Nothing But Aggravation’.

Market Report for Monday, November 1st

It’s a deep slate today with some interesting spots for a couple of underdogs. Let’s get started on the card.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Cleveland Cavaliers at *Charlotte Hornets (-4, 224.5)

It is a second leg of a back-to-back for Charlotte which grabbed a solid victory last night over Portland. The Hornets averaged 1.302 points per possession in non-garbage time and shot 20-of-42 from beyond the arc, and one must wonder what the encore is like 24 hours later after such a strong offensive game. Having said that, it is not the best spot for Cleveland either. The Cavaliers are on the final game of a five-game road trip that took them through the West Coast. Cleveland finished that trip 2-2 SU/3-1 ATS but needed a strong fourth quarter to sneak back into a double-digit spread in Phoenix. On the court, this matchup is all about the perimeter. The Cavaliers have allowed the 10th lowest frequency of 3-point attempts to opponents and have allowed just 31.2% from the perimeter. The Hornets only take 34.7% of their attempts from deep, but they are currently the 2nd-best shooting team in the league at 41.5% and it is such a massive part of their offensive identity. In the loss to Miami on Friday the Heat held them to just 13-of-37 from deep and the team posted its worst individual game offensive rating of the season. The total here has dropped three points as well, as Cavaliers games have been a slog. Cleveland is 5-0 to the Under in its last five games and 24th in pace at this point of the season. Their defensive ability has slowed their games down immensely.

*Portland Trail Blazers at Philadelphia 76ers (-6, 220.5)

After two games in which its opponents scored less than a point per possession the Trail Blazers defense that we know showed up on Sunday. The Hornets averaged 1.302 per possession in non-garbage time, took 30 attempts at the rim which led to 18 corner 3-point attempts on which Charlotte shot 50.0% on. Portland’s defense could have a better shot in Philadelphia today, as the 76ers are not a team that forces action at the rim. The 76ers have attempted just 26.5% of their shots within four feet this season, the second lowest rate in the league. They do shoot 39.4% as a team from the perimeter, but most of their damage is done on non-corner 3-pointers which is something the Trail Blazers have allowed opponents to hit just 34.2% of the time. Philadelphia will also have to step up its own perimeter defense, as it has struggled lately. Atlanta hit 38.1% of its attempts on Saturday, New York blew them out last week with a 44.4% effort from the perimeter and New Orleans shot 41.7% in the season opening victory. The Trail Blazers’ offense is generated from non-corner 3-pointers. They have attempted 33.8% of their shots from that area of the floor, ranking them 3rd in frequency on those shots. It is not surprising that the market has moved toward Portland here, as Philadelphia was just laying 3.5 against a similarly power rated team in Atlanta on Saturday.

San Antonio Spurs at Indiana Pacers (-3.5, 218.5)

Indiana’s offense has completely disappeared over the last five games, and it has shown zero signs of returning. After putting up a 120.8 offensive rating in the first two games of the season the Pacers have averaged 98.6 points per 100 possessions, good for 27th in the NBA ahead of just Oklahoma City, Detroit and Houston. It is no wonder why the market has come in on San Antonio here and pushed Indiana down to -2.5 at almost every shop. Malcolm Brogdon is also questionable after missing the team’s last two games which has not helped matters. In his time on the floor this season the Pacers’ offensive rating is 3.1 points higher per 100 possessions, something they desperately need. The Spurs have treated bettors well so far this season, posting a 4-2 ATS record and covering in spots an undervalued ‘dog like Saturday at Milwaukee where they were + 7 and won outright. San Antonio has been sound on defense, allowing 103.8 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes, 62.9% at the rim and just 34.0% from the perimeter. On paper, it seems like a poor matchup for Indiana if Brogdon is not available. It will not surprise you to hear that this total has dropped to 217.5 given the offensive struggles of Indiana and the defensive ability of San Antonio.

Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks (-6.5, 212.5)

The market cannot get enough of New York and with a 4-2 ATS record it is easy to see why. Now, they host Toronto which will likely be without Scottie Barnes, likely why bettors have seen this number go from -6.5 to -7 at every shop. The Raptors had their own struggles to start the season but have a 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS streak active heading into tonight. While the offensive numbers they have put against the likes of Indiana and Orlando could be deemed fraudulent, the defensive numbers are real. The Raptors are allowing 102.3 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, 34.8% to shooters and 87.3 points per 100 plays in the halfcourt. It is why I believe Toronto could fare somewhat better here, even if Barnes misses the games. New York has done a great job steering into the math on offense, taking 41.5% of its attempts from deep and shooting 41.8% on those attempts. It is why they currently lead the league in offensive efficiency according to Cleaning The Glass (117.1). The Raptors are a sound perimeter defense which has allowed just 34.8% from 3-point range this season, but this goes beyond shooting. Toronto has also been brilliant on the glass, grabbing 34.5% of its misses and ranking 2nd in total rebounding rate (52.9%) and second chance points per game (17.0). The Raptors have a + 5.2 net rating in the minutes without Barnes on the floor, so I will take a chance on what looks to be an inflated number with the underdog.

Play: Raptors (+ 7)

Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks (-6, 222)

It seems that the defense most of us expected to be so bad last season decided to show up over the last two games for Atlanta. The Hawks allowed the Wizards and 76ers to put up offensive ratings of 1.192 and 120.2 respectively in consecutive losses. Atlanta has also dropped its last three games ATS and now they face a revenge scenario against the 5-1 SU & ATS Wizards. Washington cooked Atlanta in almost every facet on offense, shooting 66.7% at the rim and 38.2% from deep while averaging 1.385 points per play in transition. Unfortunately, rim defense and transition defense are two area in which the Hawks have struggled this season and the Wizards are a top 10 offense in both areas of the floor. Do not let the -5.5 fool you as there has clearly been an adjustment on the power rating here for both teams. Atlanta was -3 in the game in Washington last week which would put this game much closer to -8 in a basic flip of venues. Bettors should also keep an eye on the injury report as Daniel Gafford is questionable to play for the Wizards.

Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics (-2.5, 217.5)

When are the Boston Celtics going to figure things out? Boston dropped to 2-4 SU and ATS in its double-overtime loss to Washington on Saturday, and its offense continues to be one of the least efficient units at 104.8 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes. The betting market is heading toward the Bulls with Celtics -2 populating the board this morning, but it might not be the best spot for Chicago. Their depth took another blow over the weekend with the loss of Patrick Williams for most, if not all, of the season, and Coby White remains sidelined. They took care of business against Utah, but that was a game in which Mike Conley was unavailable for the Jazz and the bulls still only managed 1.029 points per possession on offense. I can understand not wanting any piece of the Celtics here but be wary of rushing in to fade them as the Bulls are still an enigma and now they are missing one of their most important pieces.

Denver Nuggets at Memphis Grizzlies (-1.5, 216)

Memphis has a problem on defense. It’s great to see highlights of Ja Morant slicing through defenses on a nightly basis, but the Grizzlies are giving up 116.9 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes this season. Opponents are shooting 44.1% on 3-point attempts, 42.9% on non-corner 3-pointers and 50.0% on corner 3-point attempts. It has been abysmal to watch and Miami made them pay Saturday with a 21-of-31 shooting performance. Why in the world would bettors want to trust this unit? Denver is now + 2 in this contest and there is some value in that number. The Nuggets went to Minnesota on Saturday and took one from the Timberwolves with a defense that only allowed 0.938 points per possession. Denver still has problems on offense, but its defense is legitimately good and coupled with a poor defense like Memphis it screams value on the underdog here.

Play: Nuggets + 2

Best Bets Summary

Raptors (+ 7)

Nuggets (+ 2)

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