NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Monday 11/7

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 

November 7, 2022 07:40 AM

Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

All game lines via the VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Monday, November 7th

* Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Record: 14-13 | Units: +0.29 | ROI: +1.12%

Boston Celtics (-3.5, 229) at *Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis has won its last three games, and across those three contests they have allowed just 99.7 points per 100 possessions. One could argue that the defense is improving, or you could assess its opponents and realize they played the 20th, 23rd and 27th ranked offenses in the league, all without their best offensive players. I tend to think the struggling defensive team is still there, and I believe we will see that once again tonight against Boston. The Celtics lead the NBA in offensive efficiency in non-garbage time at 118.5 points per 100 possessions. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown should go after Ja Morant as much as possible when Boston has the ball, and they have multiple options for him defensively. There have been plenty of signs that Memphis is an overvalued team that is not as good as its record would suggest, but I have not found the opportunity, until tonight, to play against it. Situationally, the Grizzlies playing their fourth game in six nights while on the second leg of a back-to-back helps as well.

Play: Celtics (-3.5)

Oklahoma City Thunder at Detroit Pistons (-2.5, 224.5)

As of now the median result of home teams has been +2.0 with an average net rating of +2.4 in non-garbage time, according to Cleaning The Glass. Personally, I have stuck with using 1.5 as homecourt and the median result has started to come back to that point after peaking at +3.0 so I still feel confident in using that number. This matters because we have Detroit as 1.5-point favorite today at home against Oklahoma City, a number which would tell us that the Pistons are a team equal to the Thunder which is not something my numbers say is true. Oklahoma City is still the eighth best defense in the league, allowing only 108.7 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, and as a result they have only been outscored by 0.1 points per 100 possessions, compared to the 7.3 points per 100 possessions Detroit has been outscored by. This is a number play for me, as I believe the Thunder should go off as about 1.5 point favorites.

Play: Thunder (+1.5)

Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors (-8, 230)

Golden State’s road trip went as poorly as it could go, and the team returns home 1-6 SU/2-5 ATS slide. The Warriors are now 27th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (116.2), and they are the worst fouling team in the league at 24.2 committed per game with opponents making 26.4 free throws per 100 possessions. One would think that this team is not playable until they show signs of improvement, but I am not shying away. On Friday I attempted to buy low on Golden State, but Steve Kerr benched almost everyone, and I was sitting on +4.5 on a number that closed +10.5 at most shops. Today, the market is moving against the Warriors, but I will push back. This team is still 12th in offensive efficiency (114.3) and with Steph Curry on the floor they put up 121.0 points per 100 possessions. Golden State was laying 10 when these two teams met two weeks ago, and now this is down to 7.5 almost everywhere. I’ll take my chances against the Kings with a cheaper number.

Play: Warriors (-7.5)

Best Bet Recap

Celtics (-3.5)

Thunder (+1.5)

Warriors (-7.5)

The Rest

Phoenix Suns (-1, 217) at Philadelphia 76ers

Joel Embiid has not played since Oct. 27 when Philadelphia beat Chicago, and he is questionable to play yet again tonight. We have seen this number reach Phoenix -2.5 as of this morning, but should Embiid play this might get to PK or 76ers -1 at close. Keep in mind, the Suns lost Cam Johnson for the foreseeable future and this team is now very thin at power forward. Phoenix is 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven games, so it is not surprising that the market is supporting them here today, but if you’re not in yet just wait to see if Embiid plays and you should be able to lay the opening number.

Milwaukee Bucks (-2.5, 226.5) at Atlanta Hawks

Milwaukee has been unstoppable so far, even when Giannis Antetokounmpo does not play. They are now 8-0 SU/7-1 ATS and we are not seeing much of an adjustment on its market power rating. When these two met in Milwaukee on Oct. 29 the Bucks closed -5.5 which would mean a -2.5 line in favor of Milwaukee in Atlanta, the opening number today. Not surprisingly, we are up slightly to -3 and that bump might be due to Trae Young’s questionable status. If Young does not play this is obviously swinging up in favor of the Bucks, so sit back and wait for clarity on the injury situation here before getting involved.

*Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets (-3, 221)

Charlotte is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six games with a -12.3 net rating. That poor net rating is due to an offense averaging just 98.2 points per 100 possessions which shouldn’t be surprising given the fact that LaMelo Ball has yet to play, and both Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward have missed time (Hayward is out again tonight). On the other side, Bradley Beal was out yesterday due to health and safety protocols, so monitor this report tonight to see if he can make it back for Washington playing on the second leg of a back-to-back. 

Houston Rockets at Orlando Magic (-4.5, 229.5)

Jabari Smith and Jalen Green popped up on the injury report, but both are probable to play for Houston. Orlando is coming off a tragic loss at home to Sacramento in which it blew a 20-point third quarter lead. This number would say that the Magic are clearly the better team, and that is not something I disagree with by my ratings. The Magic have the advantage in terms of size, and their defense – which has allowed 112.6 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time – should have the advantage against the 28th ranked offense in the league.

New Orleans Pelicans (-6.5, 237.5) at Indiana Pacers

Indiana’s offense has emerged as an extremely effective unit, and it has been the driving force behind this 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS run. Over the course of these four games the Pacers have put up 114.56 points per 100 possessions, and Tyrese Haliburton has been incredible in averaging 21.0 points, 6.3 rebounds and 8.5 assists during this run. The betting market has been somewhat overzealous in its rating of the Pelicans, which explains its 1-4 ATS slump over the last five games and why the number has moved against them here.

Portland Trail Blazers at Miami Heat (-7, 220.5)

The usual problems are plaguing Miami, but the betting market has been somewhat stubborn in adjusting its rating of this team. The Heat come into tonight with the worst ATS win percentage in the league (22.2%, 2-7-1 ATS), and to make matters worse Tyler Herro is questionable to play. Portland upgraded Damian Lillard to questionable, so it’s quite possible he returns from his calf injury tonight, but this line is up to -8 at most shops.

*Toronto Raptors at *Chicago Bulls (-4, 221)

Pascal Siakam was out, but Fred VanVleet returned to lead the Raptors in scoring and to victory on Sunday. Toronto closed -4 because Zach LaVine ended up sitting to rest his knee, and now we see Chicago -4 back at home. LaVine is likely to play, but is his return and a change in venue worth an eight-point swing in favor of the Bulls? Toronto is on a 5-2 SU/6-1 ATS run right now due to being undervalued by the betting market and it seems we have another instance of that here.

New York Knicks at Minnesota Timberwolves (-5.5, 229)

Minnesota’s offense has been an absolute nightmare (19th, 111.3 points per 100 possessions), but perhaps facing New York’s defense will be an elixir for its woes. The Knickerbockers have allowed 113.8 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, and their inability to keep teams off the offensive glass works for the Timberwolves. New York allows an offensive rebounding rate of 31.3% and Minnesota leads the league in putback points per 100 missed attempts (27.4). Mitchell Robinson is out as well, making things worse up front for the Knicks.

Denver Nuggets (-7, 233.5) at San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio has seemingly been cooled off, as it enters this game 0-3 SU and ATS in its last three games with a -23.6 net rating. Its defense has been consistently poor this season, but its offense had been performing beyond its means and that has come to end as the Spurs have averaged 99.7 points per 100 possessions during this slump. The betting market has not moved the side or total much but its not shocking that we have seen the favorite and Over take action here.

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