NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 5/27

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Friday, May 27th

*Lines are opening numbers

Miami Heat at Boston Celtics (-8.5, 200.5)

Game 6: Celtics lead 3-2

There are many factors as to why this series has played out the way it has, but the driving force behind Boston’s success has been its overwhelming defense. In five games the Celtics have held the Heat to 101.8 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes, and an offensive rating of 84.2 in halfcourt settings. Boston has a + 26.2 net rating when Al Horford and Robert Williams are on the floor together, and if Williams is available tonight there is little reason to believe the Celtics will not be punching their ticket to the NBA Finals to face Golden State.

The other factor at play here is the health of Miami, and it’s thrown the number on these games completely out of whack. Yet again, the Heat have five players listed on the injury report as questionable and chief among them is Tyler Herro who missed the last two games due to a groin strain. Herro is not the most impactful player to a spread, but seeing as Miami has averaged just 80.6 points per 100 possessions in the two games without him his presence carries a different weight now. Not listed among those injuries is Jimmy Butler who is clearly hampered by his own knee injury, as he has totaled 19 points on 7-of-32 shooting from the floor with just four trips to the free throw line since he was forced to sit out the second half of the Heat’s win in Game 3 at Boston.


All these factors have led to a massive adjustment on the game-to-game lines of this series. Boston originally closed -6 in Game 3 and covered -7 in Game 4 on Monday. For this game the market is as high as -9 at a few shops with questionable designations for Marcus Smart and Robert Williams. That is a clear indication of where the market is at with Boston, but there are just too many factors at play to confidently play this game pre-flop. Williams and Smart have already missed time in this series, and should Herro play this line will head in the direction of Miami. Speaking of, if Herro does make this game, I would expect this total to jump 1.5 points or so. He gives the Heat a much-needed shot-creator on the floor, but he's also a weak link on defense which Boston will hunt. This total is really low, but if Herro is not out there and Williams is then Miami is going to be pressed to find 90 points once again.

Best Bet Summary


Season Record: 98-82-2

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