NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 5/13

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 

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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Friday, May 13th

*Lines are opening numbers

Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks (-1.5, 212)

Game 6: Bucks lead 3-2

As he is one to do, Mike Budenholzer made an adjustment somewhat late in the game, but it was successful and it has Milwaukee in the driver’s seat of this series. Budenholzer decided to trust his big lineup down the stretch of Game 5 and kept Bobby Portis in to close out against Boston. The result was the Bucks posting a + 48.0 net rating in the quarter while killing the Celtics on the glass by grabbing seven offensive rebounds and 66.7% of all available rebounds in the quarter. Jrue Holiday’s defensive highlights will be remembered, but it was Milwaukee’s size that won the day, and it is now up to Boston to adjust their gameplan heading into an elimination setting.

The biggest issue for the Celtics in that game was that they looked like the team in the regular season that could not close out contests. Boston finished the regular season 26th in clutch time net rating (-9.5) and only went 13-22 in games that got to clutch time. The team’s offense would stagnate in those affairs, putting up 0.977 points per possession which is way better than the 66.7 offensive rating they had in clutch time on Wednesday. Robert Williams’ potential return could help offset some of the size discrepancy the Celtics face, but he does not alleviate the issues they have had in close games.

There has been no real adjustment on the betting line here, as the Bucks -1.5 is right in line with where Game 4 and Game 5 closed with homecourt factored in. Yet again the interest lies in the total here. The market is down to 210.5 at most shops, moving toward the Under for a second consecutive game. The last two games have gone Over and both teams seem to have found their stride on offense, specifically Boston which has put up 116.8 points per 100 possessions over the last two games and at least 1.16 per possession in three out of four. I’ve been on the Over each of the last two games in this series and feel like I got all the juice out of that turnip. At 210.5 I lean to the Over once more, but will not be playing it.

Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors (-8.5, 219.5)

Game 6: Warriors lead 3-2

The degree to which Golden State was whooped on Wednesday does not really matter, as the team clearly called it about midway through the third quarter. However, there is something to be said of how this team has played this series. The Warriors are now 1-4 ATS in this series despite holding a 3-2 series lead and they have been outscored by 5.8 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes. There has been just one game in which this team put together a full effort, and that was Game 3 in which they had a historic offensive night. Overall, they have been held to 106.5 points per 100 possessions on offense, and their location effective field goal percentage is right in line with their actual effective field goal percentage, meaning the Grizzlies have done a brilliant job on defense. Yet the market continues to pump the rating on this team.

Golden State opened -9 in Game 4 when the news of Morant being doubtful came down, so this number is right in line with where we were at that point. What have we seen over the last two games that would say the Warriors are worthy of laying a number like this? Since Morant’s injury Memphis has held Golden State to 84.8 points per 100 possessions and covered both games wire-to-wire. It’s a simple choice for me here. Give me the underdog tonight in this spot. A return home might do wonders for the Warriors, but I would rather be on the side of the team that has the positive net rating over the course of five games as opposed to laying points with the chronically disappointing favorite who has clearly been overvalued by the market.

Play: Grizzlies (+ 8.5)

Best Bet Summary

Grizzlies (+ 8.5)

Season Record: 96-75-2

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