NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 4/29

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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Thursday, April 28th

*Lines are opening numbers

Memphis Grizzlies (-1, 228.5) at Minnesota Timberwolves

Game 6: Grizzlies lead 3-2

There is no question that Minnesota is kicking itself for how this series has gone. The Timberwolves are 3-2 ATS in the five games but fighting for their lives after blowing another lead and falling on the road Tuesday night. Offensively both teams have struggled, but Minnesota has been wildly inconsistent on that end of the floor. The Grizzlies have held them to 104.5 points per 100 possessions in this series, 94.4 points per play in half-court settings all while forcing turnovers on 18.1% of their offensive possessions. This is the team that held a late 21-point lead in Game 3 and a 13-point lead in the fourth quarter of Game 5 on Tuesday night. 

It has been the little things that have killed Minnesota, and I would expect that those are fixed in an elimination game tonight. No giving up seven offensive rebounds to 6-foot-8 Brandon Clarke in the fourth quarter or overplaying the in-bounds pass on the final possession and allowing the opponent’s best player a free run to the basket. If the Timberwolves can clean up the mistakes, then this team is more than capable of forcing this series to a seventh game. Coming into this series I believed it to be a seven-game set, as these two teams were much closer than the market said. Minnesota has proven that overvaluing of Memphis by the market with its performances in these games, and I believe we will get another example of that tonight by winning this game. However, these contests have been so wild there really is no need to get involved this early. I’ll approach tonight from an in-game standpoint, looking for a spot to grab the Timberwolves at a bigger number should they fall behind, or vice versa given how poorly Minnesota has handled big leads in this series.

Best Bet Summary

None

Season Record: 91-71-2

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